952
FXUS63 KGID 280735
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO MID 100S. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT 1-10PM TODAY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY- THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NE-SD BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALOFT THE AREA IS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING SITS OVER THE
MIDWEST. UNDER THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF HOT
AND HUMID DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SOAR INTO THE 90S, TOPPING OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S (WEST) TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES (EAST) COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AND 100S. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FROM 1PM-10PM TODAY FOR AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS (HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES). SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR AREAS IN THE HEAT ADVISORY,
WITH LIGHTER WINDS (5-15 MPH) FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF THE
ADVISORY. SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY-
SUNNY SKIES.
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
FOR MOST AREAS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID-UPPER 70S. ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMB
INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN (HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO
AROUND 100). FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD BE CLOSE TO
NEEDING AN ADVISORY, WITH THAT LIKELY DEPENDENT ON THE DEWPOINTS IN
THOSE AREAS/THE DEGREE OF MIXING. WILL LEAVE THAT DECISION TO A
FUTURE SHIFT TO DETERMINE WHERE EXACTLY THE EDGE OF THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDEX VALUES ENDS UP. REGARDLESS OF A HEADLINE, IT WILL BE HOT AND
OVERALL UNPLEASANT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT WILL STRETCH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WHILE WARM AIR
ALOFT/CAPPING IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, MOST
LIKELY NORTH OF I-80. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT IT COULD ALSO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH AGAIN CAPPING MAKES THE DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAIN. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THE WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF THEM BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AREAS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK (I-80 AND
NORTH) HAVE THE OVERALL HIGHEST CHANCES TO SEE A STORM MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MADE A CONSIDERABLE LEAP UP TO THE
80S ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS. THE PRESENCE OF BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO HELPED
ADVECT IN THE WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS TODAY. THIS WARMING TREND
WILL BE EXPECTED TO BLEED INTO SUNDAY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TAKE
FULL ADVANTAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTING WINDS.
PATTERN-WISE, THE AREA RESTS UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST (RISING PRESSURE) AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST (FALLING PRESSURE). THESE TWO FEATURES ALMOST
BALANCE ONE ANTHER OUT, SETTING UP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET RIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST DISTURBANCE, STORM TRAJECTORIES
(TRACKS) WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE (NORTHWEST) OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY: THE HEAT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE HEAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ANOTHER 10-15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE BOARD THANKS TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO SURPASS 100
DEGREES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE
(PRIMARILY ACROSS A FEW NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS). HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 95 TO 106 DEGREES, GENERALLY
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS > 70 DEGREES) WILL BE
EXPECTED TO LIE. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BETWEEN 1PM AND
10PM SUNDAY FOR COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SMITH COUNTY
IN KANSAS UP TO ADAMS AND OVER TO POLK COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA. AREAS
WITHIN THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN EXCEEDANCE OF 100 DEGREES.
THE BIGGEST AND MOST RECENT CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS
BEEN THE ADJUSTMENT OF WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY. NEW GUIDANCE HAS REVEALED THAT THE
GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (15-30 MPH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES). MOST OF THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT SEE GUSTS >20MPH UNTIL THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE GUSTIEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD (30-
35+MPH) WILL NOT COME UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL COME AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
COMPRESSES THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FULL FORECAST AREA WILL FALL UNDER AT LEAST THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 4) HEAT RISK CLASSIFICATION WITH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
NANCE TO FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND ALL OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED WITH THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) HEAT RISK
CLASSIFICATION. THE MAJOR HEAT-RISK CLASSIFICATION SUGGESTS THAT
ANY INDIVIDUAL WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR AN EFFECTIVE COOLING
SOURCE, MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
GREATER CONFIDENCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EACH DAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO RANGE THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 100S EVERY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT MONDAY "SHOULD" (NOT GUARANTEED)
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE POSSIBILITY
FOR FURTHER HEAT CONCERNS COULD STILL RETURN NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MUCH OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY
DRY, THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. THE BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACTIVITY (30-60% CHANCES) WITH CHANCES CONCENTRATED MORE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT (25-50% CHANCES). A FEW
OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME SEVERE (MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80), ALTHOUGH THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD MAINLY LIE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS MID-WEEK
ACTIVITY WILL COME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH
EVENTUALLY SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHER PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND ANY LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF EAR/GRI.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, AND WILL
RETURN SUNDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ049-063-064-075>077-085>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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