652
FXUS63 KGID 290503
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1203 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A FEW OF OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL 10PM TONIGHT
(HAMILTON/ADAM/WEBSTER/SMITH/OSBORNE COUNTIES) WITH COUNTIES
INCLUDING AND SOUTH OF POLK AND CLAY IN NE AND JEWELL IN KS
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM MONDAY.
- HIGHS MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 90S TO LOW
100S ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 100-107
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.
- A FEW STORMS MAY POP UP ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO NIGHT. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW EXPANSIVE THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS MAY BECOME, THOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE CONCENTRATED MORE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- THE STRONGEST STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCEEDANCE OF 60MPH WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS POSSIBLE.
- THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LOOK TO MAINTAIN HIGHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 100S WITH OCCASIONAL OFF-AND-ON PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WARM AND HUMID AIR HAS MADE ITS PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO
LOW 100S TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S HAVE HELPED
INFLATE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AS HIGH AS 100-107 ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (PLACES WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND UNDER THE
HEAT ADVISORY). IN TERMS OF HEAT RELIEF TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (WARMEST LOWS ACROSS A FEW KANSAS
LOCATIONS OR NEBRASKA AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF HWY-81).
THE MAIN CHANGE THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAS BEEN THE DECISION TO LOCALLY
EXTEND THE FURTHEST EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES WITHIN TODAY'S HEAT
ADVISORY (MITCHELL TO CLAY TO POLK COUNTIES) UNTIL 9PM MONDAY. THIS
DECISION COMES AS HEAT INDICES MAY ONCE AGAIN NEAR/EXCEEDED 105
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OVERNIGHT
HEAT RELIEF EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST
NOW HIGHLIGHTS SIMILAR TEMPERATURES RETURNING (POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER THAN TODAY) WITH LINGERING MOISTURE CONTENT (UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S DEWPOINTS) THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR ON
MONDAY. THE ONE SAVING GRACE THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME HEAT RELIEF MAY
COME FROM THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OR EVEN A FEW
CLOUDS BUILDING IN DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35+. THESE BREEZY CONDITION SHOULD STICK AROUND
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO THE DAY MONDAY
WILL LATER SETTLE FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
HOWEVER, MAY STILL RETAIN PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (UP TO 25-35MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE).
THANKFULLY, THE AREAS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IMPACTS WILL ALSO BE SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT LIKELY
RECEIVE THESE GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE
LATER ON.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
NIGHT HAS BEGAN TO NARROW SOME. A FEW STORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE, COULD FORM AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST. THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD POSSIBLY FIRE OFF ANYWHERE ALONG
THIS FRONT (THE NAMNEST MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH STORM COVERAGE
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS), THE GENERAL CONSCIENCES PLACES THE
BETTER STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL (TRI-CITRIES
AREA) AS WELL AS EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (LOCATIONS
WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT). GIVEN THE HOT
TEMPERATURES, MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2,000-4,000J/KG WOULD BE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AS WELL AS SOME 35-55KTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN REGARDS TO INCREASED SUPPORT FROM THE MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL JET. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MOST PLACES (BESIDES A FEW WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA) WITH
THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAINLY FALLING BETWEEN 5PM AND 3AM MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE HAIL THREAT WILL NOT BE
AS SIGNIFICANT.
TAKING A STEP BACK TO OBSERVE THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, WE
OBSERVE A NORTHERN ROCKIES CENTER TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH A SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE RESTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY (JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA) FOR NOW. THIS WAVE PATTERN WILL
SOON LOOK TO RESEMBLE A WETTER SIGNAL WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET, POSSIBLE TO POP OUT OF
THE FLOW. THESE OFF-AND-ON DISTURBANCES COULD STIR UP A FEW
SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK NOW FEATURES AT LEAST MINOR POPS ACROSS SOME
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EVERY AFTERNOON TO NIGHT. BESIDES
THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S EACH DAY. LATER
ON IN THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY) A FEW SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHS NEAR THE TIPPLE DIGITS ONCE
MORE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS ONLY A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE PERIOD (03-06Z TUESDAY).
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT, BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH SUNRISE ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ049-064-076-077-086-
087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ007-019.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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