736
FXUS63 KGID 302348
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THESE STORMS
WILL EVEN IMPACT THE AREA.
- THERE IS A 30% TO 55% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20% TO 30%) OF
SEVERE STORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY (TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
80S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESENT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 80S TO THE UPPER
90S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID
60S TO THE MID 70S.
THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) TO ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OUT OF
5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK
(ENHANCED) WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CAPE
VALUES WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 2,500 TO 4,000+ J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM WIND
SHEAR VALUES WILL GET UP TO AROUND 50 KNOTS ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 7 TO NEAR 8 DEGREES C/KM. A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER COULD START AS
EARLY AS AROUND 6 PM WITH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS OR IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEST OF KEARNEY. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD/MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AROUND 8
OR 9 PM WHEN A LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THESE STORMS
WILL GO WHEN THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE STORMS TO IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 6, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING STORMS MOVING FROM FURNAS
COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO GREELEY COUNTY (SIMILAR TO WHERE STORMS
MOVED LAST YESTERDAY EVENING/LAST NIGHT). HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF
BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 70+ MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 2 AM
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL (POSSIBLY STRONG) STORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
THAT TIME.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5). CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH (OVER 4,000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE NAM12)
BUT 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN TODAY (UP TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS). MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER/NEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PRODUCE STORMS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAIL UP TO AROUND THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THE MAIN TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AROUND 7 PM TO
MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF STORMS
WILL EVEN IMPACT THE AREA, BUT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE
AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME
STORMS MAY IMPACT (UP TO AROUND A 30% CHANCE) NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA (HIGHWAY 6 AND NORTHWARD) FRIDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME, OR MOST, OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY) EVENING.
RIGHT NOW FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE IS A 30%
TO 55% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW THREAT (20% TO
30%) OF SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 3-7Z.
THESE STORMS, POSSIBLY SEVERE, COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A
TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. THOUGH NOT TOO TERRIBLY
LIKELY, A FEW STORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD CARRY SOME LARGE
HAIL. THE NATURE OF THESE STORMS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR NOW AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE STORMS TO BE IN THE STAGES OF
POSSIBLY DECAYING BY THE TIME THEY REACH AS FAR NORTH OF I-80.
OTHER THAN THE STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT, THE MAIN AVIATION
HAZARD WILL BE FROM THE PRESENCE OF LLWS. AROUND 35-50KTS OF
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3-13Z. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND DAY WITH
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-30KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SPEEDS WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15KTS
UNLESS INFLUENCED BY A PASSING THUNDERSTORM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...STUMP
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