096
FXUS63 KGID 020542
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.
- CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
- STORMS MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
- THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HEAT UP INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID/UPPER 90S. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BETWEEN 9 PM AND AROUND 1 AM. PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO GET STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE HAIL UP TO AROUND THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE HRRR AND NAM12 ARE BOTH SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY GET STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CAPE, INSTABILITY, AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT
PRESENT. SOME ISOLATED, WEAKER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND 8 OR 9 PM
WITH EVERYTHING PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 2 AM. HOWEVER, THE NAM12
DEVELOPS A STORM AROUND THE GRAND ISLAND AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND
CONTINUES STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY HAVE A
FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL (AROUND 70%) OF BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN VERY
HIGH CAPE (3,000 TO 5,000+ J/KG), DECENT WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA), AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 TO 8
DEGREES C/KM. THE DECIDING FACTOR MAY BE IF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVER/NEAR THE AREA. MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DETAILS ABOUT THESE STORMS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SUPPOSED TO BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
MID/UPPER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER (ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80) IF THE NAM12 IS RIGHT SINCE IT BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT SOONER AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY
(LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING). THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS NOT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (AROUND 60%) THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. VARIOUS CHANCES (AROUND 15% TO 25%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS DID NOT PAN OUT TONIGHT, A FEW DECAYING
SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE TO BE IN THE KEAR VICINITY AROUND 7-9Z.
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION IS EXPECTED (VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINING). THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER END OF THE 6Z TAF
PERIOD (0-6Z) WILL BE THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR EVENING TO
NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE,
THOUGH SLIGHTLY INCREASED SINCE EARLIER, IS STILL NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN A PREVAILING GROUP FOR NOW.
WINDS TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL NOT BE EXPECTED
TO GUST HIGHER THAN 20KTS WITH WINDS MAINLY SUSTAINING NEAR
10KTS. WINDS BETWEEN 16-18Z WILL BE EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH
PEAK AFTERNOON GUSTS LIKELY TO RANGE AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIRECTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
ADJUST MUCH (180-140 DEGREES) WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS LIKELY
RETUNING IN THE EVENING.
LLWS, THOUGH POSSIBLY MARGINAL AT TIMES, WILL GENERALLY NOT BE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE LONG OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK LLWS
SIGNAL LOOKS TO COME BACK THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...STUMP
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