203
FXUS63 KGID 021139
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
639 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH.
- SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG- SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS (30-45MPH) IN STRATIFORM RAIN NORTH
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. OFF AND ON STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. ALOFT THE AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AROUND SUNRISE TO THE MID-MORNING HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S, THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES, GUSTING 20-30MPH. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS/NE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM INTO A
CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST. STORMS LOOK TO
REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HOW FAR EAST STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH IS UNCERTAIN AS
INSTABILITY WANES AROUND SUNSET AND STORMS ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
WORSE SHEAR. THESE STORMS WOULD CARRY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA A CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS LIKELY TO FORM INTO AN MCS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THIS MCS COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS IT NORTH OF THE AREA.
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY/ZONAL
FLOW. ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 100
DEGREES. IN THIS HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FAVORED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY DEPEND ON
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT'S/FRIDAY MORNING'S
CONVECTION BRINGING A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST.
STILL WHEREVER STORMS FORM, FAVORABLE CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. OVER TIME THESE STORMS MAY FORM INTO
AN MCS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL HIGHER THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
IN WHAT FEELS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
A HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 90S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AIRMASS, THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG/SEVERE THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO HI-RES GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HEAT UP INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID/UPPER 90S. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BETWEEN 9 PM AND AROUND 1 AM. PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO GET STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE HAIL UP TO AROUND THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE HRRR AND NAM12 ARE BOTH SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY GET STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CAPE, INSTABILITY, AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT
PRESENT. SOME ISOLATED, WEAKER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND 8 OR 9 PM
WITH EVERYTHING PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 2 AM. HOWEVER, THE NAM12
DEVELOPS A STORM AROUND THE GRAND ISLAND AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND
CONTINUES STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY HAVE A
FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL (AROUND 70%) OF BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN VERY
HIGH CAPE (3,000 TO 5,000+ J/KG), DECENT WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA), AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 TO 8
DEGREES C/KM. THE DECIDING FACTOR MAY BE IF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVER/NEAR THE AREA. MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DETAILS ABOUT THESE STORMS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SUPPOSED TO BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
MID/UPPER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER (ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80) IF THE NAM12 IS RIGHT SINCE IT BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT SOONER AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY
(LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING). THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS NOT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (AROUND 60%) THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. VARIOUS CHANCES (AROUND 15% TO 25%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGHOUT MOST OF TAF PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN EVENING-NIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ~15Z AT
KGRI/KEAR WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING MOVING FROM THE WEST,
AND FIRST IMPACTING KEAR THAN KGRI. CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING IS LOW, SO KEPT A BROAD PROB30 GROUP (COULD HAVE GUSTY
WINDS IF STRONG). IN THE STORMS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT GIVEN BROADER UNCERTAINTY TAF WAS KEPT VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS FALLING TO
10KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...DAVIS
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