607
FXUS63 KGID 022017
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT (AROUND A 30% CHANCE)
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- THE SEVERE STORM RISK INCREASES FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT (UP TO ENHANCED). LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
(4TH OF JULY) WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- THERE IS AROUND A 30% TO 60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH
(NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NE).
- THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF STORMS
SATURDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW/MID 70S. THE
SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND MAY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE 12Z HRRR IS SHOWING STORMS
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING
(AROUND 10 OR 11 PM). THE 12Z NAM12 IS SHOWING STORMS STAYING AWAY
FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
12Z NAMNST IS SHOWING STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 7 OR 8
PM AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. THE 12Z GFS IS
SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY/AROUND 7 PM AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
BY 10 PM. CAPE VALUES BY THIS EVENING WILL BE AROUND 3,500 TO 5,000+
J/KG, AND 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 7 TO 8 DEGREES C/KM.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN, AND IF, STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IF THEY DO, THEY COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS IN EITHER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OR A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A LITTLE FROM THOSE
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
WHOLE FORECAST AREA IS IN EITHER A MARGINAL, SLIGHT, OR ENHANCED
(LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY EVENING, CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000+ ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE. 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS, AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8.5 DEGREES C/KM ARE EXPECTED. A
SHORTWAVE (OR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES) IS/ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER/NEAR
THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL UP TO AROUND
GOLF BALL SIZE, WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 70 MPH, AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK WILL GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED
AROUND 6 PM TO 3 AM.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT (4TH OF JULY)...
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE RAIN AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY BUT ARE STILL NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT WHERE TO
PLACE THE PRECIPITATION. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (AROUND
60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY EVENING IS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. AREAS NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES ARE LEAST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RAIN AND STORMS (AROUND A 30% TO 40% CHANCE).
THE TRI-CITIES AREA IS PROBABLY THE AREA OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
(AROUND A 40% TO 60% CHANCE). A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS SATURDAY WILL
DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN
AND STORMS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GIVEN FAIRLY
HIGH CAPE, WIND SHEAR, AND LAPSE RATES, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST RISK WOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE ON A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (15% TO AROUND 20%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THESE STORMS IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AROUND 01Z TO 06Z BUT
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SO DID NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW. THERE
IS BETTER CONFIDENCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FRIDAY. WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY
(WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS) OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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