829
FXUS63 KGID 062038
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY, AND MOST LIKELY (80-90%) DRY TUESDAY
- MOST LIKELY CHANCE (50-70%) FOR PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...LESSER CHANCE (30-50%) ON
THURSDAY.
- HOTTER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
QUIET TODAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS, SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN WE'VE HAD THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S.
THE PRIMARY POINTS TO TALK ABOUT IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MID AND LATE WEEK AND THE WARM UP FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION IS NOT OVERLY STRONG AND A NEW DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST AND WILL BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR THE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO IMPACT US. THE FIRST AND BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
NEAR A FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (INCLUDING GEFS/ENS/GEPS)
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST 76% OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A TRACE AT KGRI.
FOR THURSDAY, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY
EXISTS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, PRIMARILY OUT IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, THEN AFTER DEVELOPMENT IT IS
MORE LIKELY TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE SAME
GRAND ENSEMBLE FOR THURSDAY AT KGRI ONLY INCLUDES 42 % THAT HAVE
AT LEAST A TRACE AT KGRI. MEANWHILE, LOOKING FURTHER WEST,
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWS A 59% CHANCE OF PRECIP GREATER THAN A
TRACE. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE AREA. THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL NECESSARILY BE DRY,
BUT IT'S NOT AS GOOD OF A CHANCE AS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AHEAD OF THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRIEFLY COOLER (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S).
THINGS CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AS THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. IT WILL HEAT UP FOR THE WEEK OF JULY 13TH. THAT BEING
SAID, WATCHING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, THE TREND HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DECREASING...IN TERMS OF
SOME OF THE CRAZY HIGH TEMPERATURES (EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES). NOW
DON'T TAKE THIS TO MEAN THAT IT WON'T STILL BE A HEAT
WAVE/SIGNIFICANT WARM UP, BUT IT MAY NOT BE AS HOT AS SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
JULY 15TH-16TH LOOK TO BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
QUIET FORECAST PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SSE WINDS
AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AT KEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...SCOTT
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