145
FXUS63 KGID 071119
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM AGAIN TODAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY (50-90% CHANCE), ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED REDEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
TODAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S),
WITH A STEADY SOUTH WIND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
COLORADO UP INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS
SHOULD FIZZLE OUT WELL TO THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
MID AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EVENING HOURS. EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, PROMOTING
A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND (AND HAIL, TO A LESSER EXTENT). AS
SUCH, MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW IN A "SLIGHT" SEVERE RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5).
THE PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY STAGNANT ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST T-STORM CHANCES IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY, BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REDEVELOP, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
BEYOND FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY SLIM THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A NOTABLE WARMUP IS STILL ON-
TAP FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION OF THE HEAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
QUIET TODAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS, SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN WE'VE HAD THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S.
THE PRIMARY POINTS TO TALK ABOUT IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MID AND LATE WEEK AND THE WARM UP FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION IS NOT OVERLY STRONG AND A NEW DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST AND WILL BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR THE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO IMPACT US. THE FIRST AND BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
NEAR A FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY A DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (INCLUDING GEFS/ENS/GEPS)
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST 76% OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A TRACE AT KGRI.
FOR THURSDAY, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY
EXISTS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, PRIMARILY OUT IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, THEN AFTER DEVELOPMENT IT IS
MORE LIKELY TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE SAME
GRAND ENSEMBLE FOR THURSDAY AT KGRI ONLY INCLUDES 42 % THAT HAVE
AT LEAST A TRACE AT KGRI. MEANWHILE, LOOKING FURTHER WEST,
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWS A 59% CHANCE OF PRECIP GREATER THAN A
TRACE. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE AREA. THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL NECESSARILY BE DRY,
BUT IT'S NOT AS GOOD OF A CHANCE AS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AHEAD OF THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRIEFLY COOLER (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S).
THINGS CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AS THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. IT WILL HEAT UP FOR THE WEEK OF JULY 13TH. THAT BEING
SAID, WATCHING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, THE TREND HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DECREASING...IN TERMS OF
SOME OF THE CRAZY HIGH TEMPERATURES (EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES). NOW
DON'T TAKE THIS TO MEAN THAT IT WON'T STILL BE A HEAT
WAVE/SIGNIFICANT WARM UP, BUT IT MAY NOT BE AS HOT AS SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
JULY 15TH-16TH LOOK TO BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. GUSTS NEAR
20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...MANGELS
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