529
FXUS63 KGID 080457
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY EVENING (50-80%
CHANCE). SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL.
- THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER (MAINLY 80S) WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 (MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS)
- OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND
HEATING BACK UP INTO THE 90S BY SUNDAY AND AT LEAST SEVERAL
DAYS THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SUMMER HEAT...
HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA (WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT) AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S). A STRONG AND UNUSUALLY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
(600 DECAMETERS AT 500 MB) IS PROJECTED TO INITIALLY BUILD OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EVEN
BY JULY STANDARDS. OUR PROJECTED HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S MAY BE TOO COOL AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE UPPER 90S AND EVEN SOME 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IF THIS
UPPER RIDGE PATTER FULLY MATERIALIZES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...
WE HAVE TWO REMAINING DECENT CHANCES TO GET MOISTURE BEFORE THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SHUT OFF
FOR AWHILE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS RAIN MAY
COME IN THE FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING THE WIND GUSTS, BUT ALSO AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO MAIN AREAS TO WATCH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP, WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE ISOLATED, BUT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING AND CAPABLE
OF DUMPING HEAVIER 1" PLUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LATER PRECIPITATION WILL BRING MAINLY A SEVERE WIND THREAT TO
OUR AREA WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS, RAIN AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" BUT MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH IN THE NBM
(50-70%), BUT STORMS MAY END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80 AND EVEN
HIGHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE MARGINAL THAN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
OTHER THAN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING (MAINLY
23-04Z) VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EAR/GRI. WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DEPART THE AREA.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...MANGELS
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