188
FXUS63 KGID 081721
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1221 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT (MAINLY 7PM TO MIDNIGHT). WIND AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING. A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS MORE SPOTTY.
- THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED T-STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
- DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
CURRENTLY, SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST
KANSAS UP THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND ARE GRADUALLY MOVING
EASTWARD. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS FRONT THIS EVENING,
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN KS/NE. INITIALLY,
STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL, TRANSITIONING TO A
WIND THREAT AS STORMS MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS
(PROBABLY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA). OUTPUT FROM
CAMS DOES NOT SUGGEST "HIGH-END" WINDS, BUT GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
SEEM LIKELY ON AT LEAST A SCATTERED BASIS.
THURSDAY TRENDS COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS SUCH,
THE PRIMARY T-STORM THREAT SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AS STORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATER
THURSDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY, AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN PROMOTE A MOSTLY DRY AND WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SUMMER HEAT...
HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA (WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT) AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S). A STRONG AND UNUSUALLY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
(600 DECAMETERS AT 500 MB) IS PROJECTED TO INITIALLY BUILD OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EVEN
BY JULY STANDARDS. OUR PROJECTED HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S MAY BE TOO COOL AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE UPPER 90S AND EVEN SOME 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IF THIS
UPPER RIDGE PATTER FULLY MATERIALIZES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...
WE HAVE TWO REMAINING DECENT CHANCES TO GET MOISTURE BEFORE THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SHUT OFF
FOR AWHILE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS RAIN MAY
COME IN THE FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING THE WIND GUSTS, BUT ALSO AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO MAIN AREAS TO WATCH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP, WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE ISOLATED, BUT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING AND CAPABLE
OF DUMPING HEAVIER 1" PLUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LATER PRECIPITATION WILL BRING MAINLY A SEVERE WIND THREAT TO
OUR AREA WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS, RAIN AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" BUT MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH IN THE NBM
(50-70%), BUT STORMS MAY END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80 AND EVEN
HIGHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE MARGINAL THAN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-15Z FOR KGRI WITH
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THOROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY/NIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WITHIN THE 18Z TAF
WOULD BE FROM A FEW STORMS (POSSIBLY SEVERE) THAT WILL NEAR AND
POTENTIALLY PASS BETWEEN THE TERMINALS BETWEEN MAINLY 0-8Z
FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORM TO NEAR/CLIP WITHER ONE THE OF TAF
SITES BETWEEN MAINLY 2-5Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY SHOULD SOON HAND OUT OF THE SOUTH BEFORE
MEANDERING OVER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND THE INFLUENCE
FROM A EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 20KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...STUMP
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