376
FXUS63 KGID 090833
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.
- WEAKENING STORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE (5%) FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, BUT MOST
AREAS WILL STAY DRY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 281, WITH AN ADDITIONAL
CLUSTER OF STORMS BETWEEN LEXINGTON AND NORTH PLATTE SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE PESKY THAN
ANTICIPATED, BUT CAMS STILL SUGGEST THAT IT WILL MOSTLY
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. THAT SAID, RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. AT ANY RATE, SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
AFTER THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAYTIME (AND MOST OF THE EVENING AS WELL). BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND.
CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GRADUALLY MOVING
EASTWARD WITH TIME. CAMS SUGGEST THIS COULD REACH OUR WESTERN
ZONES BY AROUND 10PM, BUT SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
DOES SO. NEVERTHELESS, SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS (AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALLER HAIL) ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KANSAS AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 IN NEBRASKA.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE, POSSIBLY AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS COULD MAYBE
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.
DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, THE TIMING OF THE
POTENTIALLY WARMEST DAYS CONTINUES TO SHIFT LATER INTO THE WEEK,
AND THE MOST INTENSE COULD ACTUALLY END UP REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WILL LATER
BE EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND LATER ON INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ALONG THIS FRONT BETWEEN MAINLY
6PM AND 3AM AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION, A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED STORMS (RECENTLY OBSERVED CUMULUS EXPANDING ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO) WILL LATER BE EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS. THESE STORMS WILL POSSIBLY MERGE WITH ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT, EXPANDING THE COVERAGE OF AND
EXTENDING THE TIME OF LINGERING STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF THURSDAY.
THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF) GUIDANCE HAS
RECENTLY BACKED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OFF BY AROUND 20% WITH A NOW
A MORE BROAD RANGE FORECAST OF 30-70% POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAMNEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT DRIER
(MORE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE) AND CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WHEN AND
WHERE THE BEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL COME. THE HRRR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EARLIER CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN
MAINLY 5PM AND MIDNIGHT. AS RESULT, THE HRRR KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. THE NAMNEST ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ROLLING IN FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS RESULT, IT KEEPS A MAJORITY OF THE STORMS CONCENTRATED
SOUTH OF I-80 AND LATER IN THE NIGHT (2-8AM). IN REALITY, THE BEST
SCENARIO TONIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE A COMBINATION OF THE TWO SCENARIOS
WHERE A FEW STORMS DO INITIALLY FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH LATER
IN THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE
(1,500-2,5000J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 25-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR), IT IS MORE
THAN REASONABLE TO SUSPECT THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS WOULD BE ABLE
TO TAKE ON SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. THOUGH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS MAY BE POSSIBLE, THE HAIL THREAT WILL
MAINLY FALL WITHIN THE INITIAL STORMS FIRING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO NEAR 70MPH, ESPECIALLY WITHIN STORMS RACING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING
WILL BE IF THE STORMS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE
EVENING/NIGHT INHIBIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE LATER STORMS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN IF THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT MAY UNDERCUT THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
TO A DEGREE, THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A STEADY 20-30KTS LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO PLAY A SMALL ROLE.
IN ADDITION, THE MERGING OF THESE TWO STORMS CLUSTERS COULD CREATE
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE POSSIBILITY OF 1" PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES (1.5-1.8" PWAT VALUES) MIXED IN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BRING MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (UP TO 1-2+") TO A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS (10-
20% OF THE COVERAGE AREA). THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (15-40% CHANCE OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
GIVEN POINT) TO THE FULL AREA. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASE IN
EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE, THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL HAS ALSO OVERALL
DECREASED SOME AS WELL.
BEYOND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT, THE LIGHT TO STEADY
SURFACE WINDS (5-15MPH) WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON TO AN EASTERLY ONE OVERNIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS TO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR
THURSDAY. THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT (MARGINAL RISK FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA),
THE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE MAY LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED AND
CONCENTRATED TOWARDS FAR WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW STORMS, AGAIN RACING OUT FROM OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS JUST AFTER 10PM, WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO CLIP A FEW
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS, GIVEN THE TIME
OF NIGHT, WILL PROBABLY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND, LEADING US TO
SPECULATE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MORE ISOLATED
RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...
THOUGH ONE FINAL LOW-END CHANCE FOR STORMS DOES LIE FRIDAY NIGHT (10-
30% CHANCES), THE MAIN STORY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE HEAT.
HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
CLIMB FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS WARM UP
WILL COME AS A MASSIVE RIDGE IS FAVORED TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGIONS STARTING ON SATURDAY.
THIS RIDGING PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE LONG-RANGE
ENSEMBLES TO STICK AROUND FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK (>80%
CONFIDENCE). THE PRESENCE OF THIS MASSIVE RIDGE SHOULD BRING WARM,
SUBSIDING AIR TO THE REGION THAT WILL WORK TO THWART OFF MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK. (THE LREF {LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST} ONLY SHOWS A 10-40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.1" OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK).
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WILL BE FOR HOW SUBSTANTIAL THE
WARMUP WILL BECOME (WILL HIGHS NEXT WEEK PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S OR
LOW 100S?). WHAT DOES LOOK ALMOST CERTAIN WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A
STREAK OF 90+ DEGREE DAYS. THE ONLY FORECAST ELEMENT THAT COULD KEEP
SUCH A STREAK FROM TAKING PLACE WOULD BE FROM A ROGUE DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORM OR EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT MANAGES TO PEAK IN (NOT
VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR UNDERNEATH SUCH PATTERN).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ~10-15Z, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME OF THIS STRATUS MAY FALL TO MVFR,
THOUGH THE DURATION AT KGRI/KEAR IS UNCERTAIN. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF MVFR STATUS, A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED TO
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. STRATUS CLEARS BY THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS, FIRST AT KEAR THEN KGRI, WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY, SHIFTING THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
TO THE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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