019
FXUS63 KGID 092321
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS, ONCE AGAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST (ARRIVING BETWEEN
10PM AND 1AM), COULD BRING A FEW GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO
MAINLY WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
- SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS A FEW
LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE ON A GRADUAL RISE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN AT LEAST 4+ DAY STREAK OF 90+ DEGREE
HIGHS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
- NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIE ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST PAST
FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT: STORMS ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST...
THE MAIN STORY OF THE DAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE POPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TODAY HAS ALREADY STARTED TO
STIR UP A CLUSTER OF CUMULUS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING/COLORADO. THOUGH A FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE AS THEY CROSS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, GIVEN THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THESE STORMS
(ARRIVING BETWEEN 10PM-1AM), THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO HOW MUCH
ENERGY/MOMENTUM MAY ACTUALLY BE LEFT IN THE TANK. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF) MEMBERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING THESE STORMS TO BE IN THE STAGE OF DECAY AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA / NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
REGION.
GENERALLY THESE STORM WILL BE CROSSING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH 1,5000-2,000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS WELL AS 20-35KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL BE JUST SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR
MAINTAINING ONE OR TWO STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IF ANY
STORM IS ABLE TO STAY SEVERE, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE FOR GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH WITH A FEW AREAS OF HAIL POSSIBLE
(UP TO QUARTER SIZED). THE AREAS THAT WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS WOLD BE AREAS WEST OF HWY-183 IN NEBRASKA
AS WELL AS A FEW NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS KEPT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM COZAD TO ALMA IN NEBRASKA
AND DOWN TO BELOIT IN KANSAS. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) CLIPS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF ROOKS AND OSBORNE COUNTIES.
THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER ARRAY OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS A FEW PORTIONS OF THE AREA, TO
POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS NOON ON FRIDAY. THE OVERALL BEST POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION (50-80% CHANCES) WILL BE CONCENTRATED WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES WITH 20-50% CHANCES RESERVED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA (GREATEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST). MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE 0.1-0.5" OF PRECIPITATION WITH A
FEW MORE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1" POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORY NEXT WEEK: WARMING TEMPERATURES & DRIER CONDITIONS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN KNOCKED DOWN BY AROUND 5-10 DEGREES FOR TODAY. THE "COOLEST"
DAY WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD FALL FRIDAY AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD THE LOW TO MID 80S. AFTER FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL LIKELY TAKE A
MULTI-DAY CLIMB WITH AN AT LEAST 5+ DAY STREAK OF 90+ DEGREE HEAT ON
THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS STREAK OF INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY FOR NEXT WEEK.
THIS WARM UP WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGIONS,
ADDITIONALLY HELPING TO SNUFF OUT MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
PROCESS. THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (LREF) NOW HAS A RELATIVELY
STRONG AGREEMENT IN RETAINING THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL REX BLOCK (HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF LOWER PRESSURE
CENTER) FORMING OVERTOP OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN ACHIEVES, PERSISTING HEAT (MAINLY HIGHS
IN THE 90S) WILL BE FAVORED TO STICK AROUND THE AREA. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW EXTREME THIS HEAT MAY BECOME. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER, HOWEVER, IS BEGINNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR EXTREME HEAT NEXT WEEKEND (MAINLY ON THE 17TH AND 18TH) ON THEIR
EXTENDED HAZARD OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD WITH A LOW (15%)
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS STORMS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON APPROACH TO KGRI/KEAR WITH SCATTERED,
OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY-MID MORNING (MORE LIKELY AT KEAR) AND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS/CIGS TO
SUB-VFR BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK NATURE OF STORMS EXPECTED,
DID NOT INCLUDE A SUB-VFR MENTION IN THE TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING WESTERLY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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