010
FXUS63 KGID 101744
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER TODAY/TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER LIFT IN THE FORM OF AN MCV AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WILL MOSTLY BE OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
AFTER TODAY/TONIGHT, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ON A WARMING TREND FROM SATURDAY (HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 80S) TO THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S). LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT: STORMS ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST...
THE MAIN STORY OF THE DAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE POPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TODAY HAS ALREADY STARTED TO
STIR UP A CLUSTER OF CUMULUS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING/COLORADO. THOUGH A FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE AS THEY CROSS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, GIVEN THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THESE STORMS
(ARRIVING BETWEEN 10PM-1AM), THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO HOW MUCH
ENERGY/MOMENTUM MAY ACTUALLY BE LEFT IN THE TANK. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF) MEMBERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN PORTRAYING THESE STORMS TO BE IN THE STAGE OF DECAY AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA / NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
REGION.
GENERALLY THESE STORM WILL BE CROSSING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH 1,5000-2,000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS WELL AS 20-35KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL BE JUST SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR
MAINTAINING ONE OR TWO STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IF ANY
STORM IS ABLE TO STAY SEVERE, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE FOR GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH WITH A FEW AREAS OF HAIL POSSIBLE
(UP TO QUARTER SIZED). THE AREAS THAT WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS WOLD BE AREAS WEST OF HWY-183 IN NEBRASKA
AS WELL AS A FEW NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS KEPT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM COZAD TO ALMA IN NEBRASKA
AND DOWN TO BELOIT IN KANSAS. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) CLIPS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF ROOKS AND OSBORNE COUNTIES.
THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER ARRAY OF SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS A FEW PORTIONS OF THE AREA, TO
POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS NOON ON FRIDAY. THE OVERALL BEST POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION (50-80% CHANCES) WILL BE CONCENTRATED WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES WITH 20-50% CHANCES RESERVED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA (GREATEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST). MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE 0.1-0.5" OF PRECIPITATION WITH A
FEW MORE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1" POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORY NEXT WEEK: WARMING TEMPERATURES & DRIER CONDITIONS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN KNOCKED DOWN BY AROUND 5-10 DEGREES FOR TODAY. THE "COOLEST"
DAY WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD FALL FRIDAY AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD THE LOW TO MID 80S. AFTER FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL LIKELY TAKE A
MULTI-DAY CLIMB WITH AN AT LEAST 5+ DAY STREAK OF 90+ DEGREE HEAT ON
THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS STREAK OF INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY FOR NEXT WEEK.
THIS WARM UP WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGIONS,
ADDITIONALLY HELPING TO SNUFF OUT MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
PROCESS. THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (LREF) NOW HAS A RELATIVELY
STRONG AGREEMENT IN RETAINING THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL REX BLOCK (HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF LOWER PRESSURE
CENTER) FORMING OVERTOP OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN ACHIEVES, PERSISTING HEAT (MAINLY HIGHS
IN THE 90S) WILL BE FAVORED TO STICK AROUND THE AREA. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW EXTREME THIS HEAT MAY BECOME. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER, HOWEVER, IS BEGINNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR EXTREME HEAT NEXT WEEKEND (MAINLY ON THE 17TH AND 18TH) ON THEIR
EXTENDED HAZARD OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW MORE SPRINKLES AROUND KGRI THROUGH 3 PM GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS WITH SPRINKLES STILL IN THE AREA. THE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...WESELY
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