452
FXUS63 KGID 260926
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
426 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS/EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY AGAIN TODAY, THEN PERHAPS
LESS EXTREME, BUT STILL DANGEROUS, ON MONDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS (AROUND 20%) THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES. A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAIN THREAT IS
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ARRIVES
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT...AGAIN A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST.
- CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S TO MID 90S) ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VARIOUS, INTERMITTENT RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED HOT AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OVERACHIEVED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WHAT
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED ON SATURDAY. ABSENT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN PATTERN/AIRMASS...AND AN EVEN WARMER START TO THE
DAY...SEE LITTLE TO NO REASON WHY PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
CAN'T AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 105-115F RANGE FOR MANY HOURS (6+)
AMIDST PEAK EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. TO PUT SATURDAY'S HEAT/HUMIDITY
INTO PERSPECTIVE...IT'S THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2001 THAT GRAND
ISLAND REACHED A PEAK HEAT INDEX OF 115F, OR HIGHER! IT WAS
QUITE ANOMALOUS AND A "TOP 1%" TYPE OF DAY, WHICH IS ALL THE
MORE DANGEROUS GIVEN WE'RE BASICALLY AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED
TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LAST EVENING...AND WITH HEAT
EFFECTS BEING ACCUMULATIVE AND MORE WEEKEND ACTIVITIES THIS
UPGRADE IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK.
SOME OF THE RECENT CAM GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
MOISTURE GRADIENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON - GENERALLY OVER THE
SANDHILLS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD THEN FAVOR TO DRIFT E
AND/OR SE INTO W/NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
SPC PLACES PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH, AND
THE MAIN THREAT WINDOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 6-10PM.
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND NUDGES SOUTHWARD ON
MONDAY, LEAVING SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PEAK HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL.
ONE ONE HAND - COULD SEE A PLETHORA OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TOPING
THE CREST OF THE RIDGE LEADING TO AT LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
RECENT DAYS, IF NOT ACTUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND, IF THE CLOUDS ARE INTERMITTENT AND THE RAIN IS
MEAGER OR DOESN'T PAN OUT...THEN ONE COULD MAKE THE ARGUMENT FOR
CONTINUING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING YET ANOTHER DAY BECAUSE OF
ACCUMULATIVE IMPACTS. HAVE SOME TIME TO ASSESS MODEL TRENDS
BEFORE NEEDING TO MAKE THAT CALL, AND AT THE MINIMUM, A HEAT
ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING, IF IT
HASN'T ALREADY DONE SO EARLIER, AND LEAD TO SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LOCAL AREA, AND/OR MOVE IN FROM THE W OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
"COOL DOWN" FOR TUESDAY - WHICH IS BASICALLY JUST BACK DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID TO LATE JULY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, AND TEXAS
NORTHWARD TO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED BUT MAY INCREASE SOME OUT
OF THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA LONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY (WITH VERY LITTLE WIND TO
MIX IN DRIER AIR) WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S TO LOW TRIPLE
DIGITS. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 105 TO NEAR 120 DEGREES! A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IF DRIER AIR DOESN'T MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT (MAINLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH BUT MAY BE
CLOSER TO 5 MPH) OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. IF MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS IN
THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MORE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON (SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25
MPH). SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO HEAT UP TO THE MID/UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUNDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH THE MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT.
BASED ON THE MOISTURE HANGING AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY,
TEND TO THINK THAT MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN
TODAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
PERHAPS WITH LOWS AROUND 80 DEGREES. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT (15% TO
NEAR 20% CHANCE) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY NORTH OF I-80). THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR BUT THE MAIN
RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH.
MONDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT THERE IS ALSO A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE.
GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM 97 TO 103
DEGREES. SOME OF THE HOTTER MODELS HAVE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 105 TO 110+ DEGREES! TEND TO THINK THESE HOTTER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT LIKELY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY ENDS AT
10 PM MONDAY EVENING. BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY, THERE ARE VARIOUS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THIS IS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR PERIOD, WITH MAINLY JUST
VARYING DEGREES OF PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ODDS ALSO
STRONGLY FAVOR (80-90% CHANCE) OF REMAINING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM-
FREE, WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SPOTTY HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION POSSIBLY NEARING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD SUNDAY
EVENING (THIS CHANCE CURRENTLY DEEMED TOO LOW TO EVEN JUSTIFY A
PROB30 GROUP). ONE OTHER POSSIBLE THING TO WATCH IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT VISIBILITY COULD TRY TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY DROP TO
LOW-END VFR/MAYBE HIGH-END MVFR AT SOME POINT EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LIGHT FOG. GIVEN THIS OUTSIDE CHANCE, HAVE MAINTAINED A
"HINT" WITH A LOW-END VFR "6SM BR" VISIBILITY GROUP.
WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE AS PREVAILING DIRECTION
REMAINS LARGELY SOUTHERLY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE BULK OF
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING WILL PREVAIL UNDER 10KT.
HOWEVER, THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BREEZIER
CONDITIONS, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 11-15KT/GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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