856
FXUS63 KGID 261943
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 105 TO 120
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
6. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE
IN A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CONDITIONS ARE HEATING UP OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 106 DEGREES
AND AROUND 120 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND
105 DEGREES. A FEW ISOLATED AREAS, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281, MAY
EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 115 AND 120 DEGREES. THE WHOLE
AREA IS IN AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN
NEBRASKA). THE BEST CHANCES (15% TO 20%) WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI-CITIES AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD. THE TRI-CITIES AREA MAY EXPERIENCE A
FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY COOL TO AROUND THE MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES, BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN
INFLUENCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE, AND
CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES (AROUND 100 TO
106 DEGREES) AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE
110 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON, THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
THIS AREA WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE (DUE TO THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FACTORS) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO
THOSE AREAS WERE NOT UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH, THE NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BORDERING KANSAS HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
REACHING EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA ON MONDAY AND THERE IS FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE (AROUND 70%) THAT SOME AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES
MAY HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR/AROUND 110 DEGREES ON MONDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 101 IN ORD TO AROUND 106 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE (UP TO AROUND A 50% CHANCE) MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(MAINLY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA). SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
60 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S) AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. VARIOUS
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE AHEAD OF A
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT AROUND 13Z TO 15Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 18Z MONDAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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