896
FXUS63 KGID 270622
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
122 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..UPDATE TO AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (CWA) IS NOW UNDER AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING RIGHT ON THROUGH UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY (THIS REFLECTS AN
UPGRADE/REPLACEMENT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES...OUR KANSAS COUNTIES WERE ALREADY/EARLIER UPGRADED
TO A WARNING VALID THROUGH MONDAY).
- ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS ESPECIALLY WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF
OUR NEBRASKA CWA MIGHT FALL TO "OFFICIALLY" REACH THE 110+
WARNING CRITERIA ON MONDAY, FORECAST VALUES ARE DEEMED "PLENTY
CLOSE ENOUGH" TO JUSTIFY THIS UPGRADE.
- BEYOND MONDAY: ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY "COOL" BY ANY MEANS, MORE
MANAGEABLE/TYPICAL HIGH TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 80S-MID 90S LOOK
TO PREVAIL STARTING TUESDAY...ENDING THE NEED FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.
- TURNING TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES: COMPARED TO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN
STORMS FAILED MISERABLY TO OVERCOME VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT/CAPPING AND DEVELOP INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY-SEVERE (SPC HAS EXPANDED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
TO NOW COVER ESSENTIALLY OUR ENTIRE CWA).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
-- REGARDING THE UPGRADE FROM HEAT ADVISORY TO EXTREME HEAT
WARNING (VALID THROUGH 10 PM MONDAY) FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA (CWA):
- PRECEDING DAY SHIFT HAD ALREADY UPGRADED OUR KS COUNTIES TO A
WARNING EXTENDING THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, AFTER MAKING SOME
FORECAST UPDATES TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS (AND RESULTANT HEAT
INDEX) FOR MONDAY, IT WAS DECIDED TO "PLAY IT SAFE/KEEP IT
SIMPLE" AND ALSO UPGRADE ALL OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
- ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULDN'T SEE HEAT INDEX GET QUITE AS BAD
AS SATURDAY-SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD PEAK HEAT INDEX AROUND 110
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MEANWHILE, ALTHOUGH PARTS OF ESPECIALLY
OUR FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA CWA (MAINLY COUNTIES
BOTH ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 136) MIGHT
FAIL TO "OFFICIALLY" REACH THE 110+ HEAT INDEX WARNING
CRITERIA, WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD VALUES OF AT LEAST
105-109 IN THOSE "WEAKER" AREAS...WHICH WAS DEEMED "PLENTY
CLOSE ENOUGH" TO JUSTIFY WARNING EXPANSION...ESPECIALLY WITH
MONDAY BEING THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT.
- EVEN IF ACTUAL TEMPERATURES END UP SLIGHTLY "COOLER" ON MONDAY
ACROSS ESPECIALLY OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES DUE TO ENDING UP
BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT AND MORE EASTERLY BREEZES, OFTEN WE
SEE DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY POOL AND BECOME PARTICULARLY OPPRESSIVE
(OFTEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST) JUST NORTH OF THESE
FRONTS...ESSENTIALLY "COMPENSATING" FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
DRIVE STILL-OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CONDITIONS ARE HEATING UP OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 106 DEGREES
AND AROUND 120 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND
105 DEGREES. A FEW ISOLATED AREAS, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281, MAY
EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 115 AND 120 DEGREES. THE WHOLE
AREA IS IN AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN
NEBRASKA). THE BEST CHANCES (15% TO 20%) WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI-CITIES AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD. THE TRI-CITIES AREA MAY EXPERIENCE A
FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY COOL TO AROUND THE MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES, BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN
INFLUENCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE, AND
CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES (AROUND 100 TO
106 DEGREES) AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE
110 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON, THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
THIS AREA WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE (DUE TO THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FACTORS) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO
THOSE AREAS WERE NOT UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH, THE NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BORDERING KANSAS HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
REACHING EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA ON MONDAY AND THERE IS FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE (AROUND 70%) THAT SOME AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES
MAY HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR/AROUND 110 DEGREES ON MONDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 101 IN ORD TO AROUND 106 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE (UP TO AROUND A 50% CHANCE) MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(MAINLY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA). SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
60 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S) AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. VARIOUS
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY, WITH MAINLY JUST VARYING DEGREES OF PASSING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE THREE
POSSIBLE CONCERNS WORTH DISCUSSING:
- 1) ONGOING MARGINALLY-STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)...SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS.
- 2) A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME BRIEF LIGHT FOG MAINLY A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE THIS MORNING, THAT IF IT FORMS
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MAINLY MVFR CATEGORY (THIS IS ONLY
"HINTED" AT FOR NOW WITH A "6SM BR" GROUP).
- 3) VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY AFTER 02-03Z), SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLY EVEN STRONG TO MARGINALLY-
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS?) BECOME A POSSIBILITY. GIVEN THIS IS
STILL WELL INTO THE LATTER HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND THERE ARE
VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS, HAVE OPTED TO GET THE
BALL ROLLING WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW.
- WINDS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
ASIDE FROM ANY POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATER
MONDAY EVENING (NOT A SURE THING), WINDS WILL REMAIN TAME (UNDER
12KT) AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING, TO
NORTHERLY-THEN-MORE-EASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT. SOME GUSTS OF 16+KT ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
HAVE MAINTAINED A LLWS GROUP FOR THESE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH
10Z, AS SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE REACHING 30+KT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE 1-2K FT. AGL LAYER. DURING THIS
TIME, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2K FT. AGL WILL
COMMONLY PEAK AROUND 40KT...BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING MORE
WESTERLY/NORTHERLY BEYOND 10Z IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
COOL FRONT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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