577
FXUS63 KGID 281747
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH LESS OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A COOL FRONT THE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN MORE SEASONABLE FOR
LATE JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE FRINGES OF A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
- MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO THE
REGION IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
- LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER HEAT WAVE MAY DEVELOP
AROUND 7-10 DAYS FROM NOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT OUR KS COUNTIES AS
OF 4AM...AND EVEN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BY AROUND
SUNRISE. FORTUNATELY THIS RAIN CAME WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVED A QUICK 1.5-2", BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER
AND MATURE CROPS HAVE KEPT ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AT BAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
THE BRUNT OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S GIVEN MODEST EASTERLY
FLOW/MIXING AND TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM OTHER HIGH "CORN SWEAT"
AREAS...BUT FORTUNATELY THE AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SOLID
5-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS SUCH, HEAT
INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT MORE
TOLERABLE/SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL COME
TONIGHT - AND GENERALLY BEHAVE IN A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD, MOIST, UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME...THEN SHIFT E DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING MORE SUPPRESSED, THE PRIMARY AREA OF
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO BE SUPPRESSED A LITTLE FURTHER
S...AND WITH W TO NW UPPER FLOW, TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CENTERED MORE FROM CO INTO KS. RECENT CAM ENSEMBLES TEND TO
AGREE WITH THIS, AND ARE GENERALLY A BIT SLOWER AND LESS
ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. THUS, POPS AREN'T QUITE AS HIGH (ONLY
20-40%) AND FAVOR THE S HALF (IF NOT THIRD) OF THE CWA.
BIT OF A "WASH, RINSE, REPEAT" SITUATION WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH PERHAPS FURTHER N AGAIN, THANKS TO SOMEWHAT
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO AREAS N OF I-80. CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MAIN CONCERN
SHOULD BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE UP TO
AROUND 175% OF NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
MID-WEEK...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME, OVERALL NO NOTABLE
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN, WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING
TO RUN ROUGHLY THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE REMAIN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE MID-
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE EDGE
OF THE MAIN RIDGING AND SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUE EVENING-NIGHT AND AGAIN WED EVENING-NIGHT REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH MODELS THEN SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 40-60 PERCENT CHANCES THU-
THU NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT WITH THE
TIMING/COVERAGE OF THOSE CHANCES.
MORE NOTEWORTHY FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IS MODELS SHOWING A
BREAK FROM THE HEAT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS TUE-THU ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S-MID 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES MORE
IN THE 90S-NEAR 100...VS THE WELL ABOVE 100 FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
FRIDAY AND ON...
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND DRIES OUT...BUT WILL
SEE IF THAT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP PANNING OUT THAT WAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES THROUGH THU-THU NIGHT LOOKS TO
GIVE THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS A BETTER PUSH BACK TO THE
WEST...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE AMPLIFIED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AT THIS POINT MODELS AREN'T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE AREA. THIS SHIFT IN THE RIDGING HELPS
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS GOING FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF SOME PATCHY LOWER-LEVEL
STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA, CURRENTLY SITTING JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. IF THIS AREA EXPANDS OR DRIFTS
NORTH AT ALL...COULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS ALONG. ALSO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE
BETTER POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. A WEAK
SURFACE PATTERN IS KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY
TURNING MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY IN NATURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
RETURN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT-WED AM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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