127
FXUS63 KGID 290136
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
836 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- NOW THAT VERY ISOLATED/SPOTTY "AFTERNOON HEATING" DRIVEN
STORMS HAVE ALL BUT DIED, OUR NEXT MAIN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WED AM...AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN MAINLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA). SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY, BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OF 1-3" POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT KEEP SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS THU-THU NIGHT COULD BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE.
- FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT OF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 80S-NEAR
90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
SEEING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PASSED
THROUGH LAST EVENING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO BASICALLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A GOOD CHUNK WERE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO AROUND 0.15 OF AN INCH. MAIN WINNERS WERE ALONG A NARROW
SWATH RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM SMITH CENTER, KS UP INTO SOUTHERN
YORK COUNTY...WHERE TOTALS WERE CLOSER TO 0.4-1.0 INCH (ISOLATED
SPOTS EXCEEDED 1 INCH). THIS SYSTEM HELPED COOL TEMPS A BIT,
AND THOUGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SITTING MORE
IN THE 90S. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...RIDGING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS, KEEPING OUR FLOW WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY. THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS
PRETTY WEAK, WHICH HAS KEPT WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE.
SEEING SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF TO OUR WEST
OVER THE ROCKIES IN CO UP INTO THE WY/NE BORDER AREA, WHERE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES HERE AT PEAK-HEATING LIE. THE WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PUSH THIS ACTIVITY EAST THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH NOT VERY QUICKLY. KEPT THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS DRY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY FADING THE FURTHER
EAST IT PUSHES, EVENTUALLY LOSING DAYTIME HEATING AND THERE
ISN'T QUITE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS WAS IN PLACE THE PAST FEW
DAYS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...RUNNING ROUGHLY WNW TO ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALONG INCREASED
(ALTHOUGH STILL NOT STRONG) FORCING ALONG LOWER TO MID-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE. MODELS VARY ON JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
THERE IS...KEPT THE POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE (20-30 PERCENT), BUT
BROAD. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE, THE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET TO 20KTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
A COUPLE MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH...OVERALL THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE
MODELS/FORECAST.
THINK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT LINGERING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-
MID MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS BEING
DRY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH THE
PERSISTENT RIDGING KEEPING THAT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE, MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH, SOME SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IN SPOTS. FORECAST HIGHS ALSO
SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS
VARY MORE ON WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SOME MORE GENEROUS WITH
ACTIVITY, OTHERS SHOWING A SMALLER SWATH DEVELOPING WITH WEAKER
FORCING. MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THU EVENING-NIGHT...BRINGING BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE (THE ENTIRE
AREA REMAINS IN THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA). FORECAST
HIGHS A BIT MORE OF A RANGE FROM THE MID 80S-MID 90S...DRIVEN BY
SOME MODELS KEEPING ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND LONGER INTO THE
DAY THAN OTHERS.
FRIDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK DRIES BACK OUT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS WITH THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BRINGING MORE AMPLIFIED NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOWING AN OVERALL LACK OF DISTURBANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME LOW POPS RETURNING AROUND TUESDAY. BREEZY
NNE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A SFC FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT AT THIS POINT THAT FRONT DOESN'T LOOK TO HAVE A
NOTABLE DOWNWARD IMPACT ON TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-80S TO NEAR 90. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON INTO
MONDAY ARE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND DRY/THUNDERSTORM-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY/EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD, THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES AND A FEW CONCERNS IN PLAY
AS OUTLINED BELOW. AS FOR WINDS, ASSUMING NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MATERIALIZES, WINDS SHOULD BE A MINIMAL
ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AT-
OR-BELOW 10KT, WITH DIRECTION MAINLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
- MAIN POTENTIAL CONCERNS AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTIES:
1) POSSIBLE LOW CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY:
AT THIS TIME, HAVE MAINTAINED VFR IN PREVAILING GROUPS. HOWEVER,
SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST AN MVFR
(POSSIBLY LOWER) CEILING COULD MATERIALIZE LATE TONIGHT...AND IF
SO COULD EVEN STICK AROUND WELL INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING AND/OR SCATTERING OUT. IT'S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS "DISRUPT"
POTENTIAL LOW STRATUS FROM FORMING, SO THIS IS NOT A HIGH
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. AS A RESULT, FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT
POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CEILING IN SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD GROUPS. IT'S
A SIMILAR STORY WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE SUB-VFR VISIBILITY, AS
EITHER SPORADIC HEAVIER RAIN AND/OR AT LEAST LIGHT FOG COULD
ALSO SHOW IT'S HAND AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...JUST A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON LIKELIHOOD.
2) POSSIBLE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS:
RECENT HIGHER-RES MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY-SUGGESTIVE
OF OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AT LEAST IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KGRI/KEAR
OVERNIGHT INTO WED AM...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 08-14Z. AGAIN,
THOUGH, THIS IS NOT YET CONSIDERED HIGH CONFIDENCE, SO HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE ONLY BASIC PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD
STORMS FORM, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITY THE MAIN POTENTIAL
CONCERN.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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