417
FXUS63 KGID 291150
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
650 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING -
FOCUSING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. MAIN THREAT IS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2-3". EXPECT A PERIOD OF
DRIER CONDITIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY, BUT MORE
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
- ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE EVE/NIGHT
HOURS. SOME STORMS THU-THU NIGHT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- A DRIER/QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90F, WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
A NW TO SE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION AMIDST A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. IN
FACT, SPC MESOA SHOWS PWAT VALUES AROUND 2" OVER THE REGION AS
OF 09Z...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JULY. OBVIOUSLY, THIS BRINGS WITH IT A
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERN, ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING VERY WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS CO-LOCATED WITH EQUALLY AS
WEEK 850-300MB MEAN FLOW. MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN ON THE DRIER
SIDE AS OF LATE...AND LATE JULY INTO AUGUST IS PEAK UPTAKE OF
SOIL MOISTURE BY AREA CROPS...SO MOST AREAS CAN TAKE A COUPLE
INCHES WITHOUT ANY ISSUES. THE CONCERN IS MOST RATE-DRIVEN
(ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AREAS/STORM DRAINS) AS WELL AS FOR REPEATED
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OVER THE SAME AREAS WHICH COULD QUICKLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3-4". MODELS HAVE REALLY BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND
LOCATION...BUT NOW THAT IT'S DEVELOPED, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND S OF I-80...AND PROBABLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 36 IN EXTREME N KS. THERE'S VIRTUALLY NO SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT - JUST A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT - THROUGH
AROUND 9-10AM, OR SO. THE REST OF THE AM AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS.
JUST HOW MUCH CLEARING WE SEE WILL PROBABLY GO A LONG WAY IN
DETERMINING THE ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON "POP-UP" POTENTIAL...
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. MUST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY...BUT SAME STORY FOR THOSE WHO HAPPEN TO FIND
THEMSELVES UNDER ONE OF THESE...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS MENTIONED BELOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN/STORMS, AND
THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF SUCH ACTIVITY, TONIGHT, REMAINS
MORE UNCERTAIN. IN GENERAL, LATEST CAMS ARE LESS IMPRESSED WITH
TONIGHT'S POTENTIAL COMPARED TO PAST COUPLE. DOUBT WE'LL STAY
COMPLETELY DRY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE LESS ORGANIZED/COVERAGE.
LASTLY JUST WANT TO RE-ITERATE THAT A STRONGER-FORCED RAIN/STORM
CHANCE LOOKS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT, BUT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A BROKEN TO SOLID LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIKELY AT LEAST SOME STRONG WIND RISK. AS
SUCH, SPC HAS UPGRADED A SMALL PORTION OF THE REGION TO A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES LOOK TO BE MORE AT RISK THAN NORTHERN
KANSAS...BUT HOPEFUL MOST AREAS COULD SEE SOME RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
A COUPLE MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH...OVERALL THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE
MODELS/FORECAST.
THINK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT LINGERING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-
MID MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS BEING
DRY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH THE
PERSISTENT RIDGING KEEPING THAT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE, MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH, SOME SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IN SPOTS. FORECAST HIGHS ALSO
SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS
VARY MORE ON WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SOME MORE GENEROUS WITH
ACTIVITY, OTHERS SHOWING A SMALLER SWATH DEVELOPING WITH WEAKER
FORCING. MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THU EVENING-NIGHT...BRINGING BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE (THE ENTIRE
AREA REMAINS IN THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA). FORECAST
HIGHS A BIT MORE OF A RANGE FROM THE MID 80S-MID 90S...DRIVEN BY
SOME MODELS KEEPING ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND LONGER INTO THE
DAY THAN OTHERS.
FRIDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK DRIES BACK OUT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS WITH THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BRINGING MORE AMPLIFIED NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOWING AN OVERALL LACK OF DISTURBANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME LOW POPS RETURNING AROUND TUESDAY. BREEZY
NNE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A SFC FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT AT THIS POINT THAT FRONT DOESN'T LOOK TO HAVE A
NOTABLE DOWNWARD IMPACT ON TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-80S TO NEAR 90. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON INTO
MONDAY ARE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT NW TO SE. EAR HAS DISSIPATED
TO SHOWERS THAT SHOULD END 12-13Z. GRI REMAINS UNDER A HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM AT THE PRESENT TIME, BUT THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR, OR SO, AT POINT WHICH FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL
RETURN TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY, THOUGH ONE CAVEAT IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED "POP-UP" THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH, EVEN AS A PROB30 GROUP...BUT WORTH MENTIONING HERE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE TODAY AT AROUND 5-10KT.
LATE TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. HAVE INTRODUCED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR BOTH EAR AND GRI AS A STARTING POINT. TONIGHT'S
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE ASORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD, BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY IMMEDIATELY UNDER
ANY STORM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...THIES
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