863
FXUS63 KGID 300934
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
434 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH IS THE MAIN RISK.
- THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY USHER IN SOME DRIER, MORE
COMFORTABLE, AIR ON FRIDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL ACTUALLY FEEL BRISK/REFRESHING WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. ENSEMBLES FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- AFTER TONIGHT, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MOISTURE ISN'T UNTIL
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND IT APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY LIMITED
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS, WITHIN AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AID ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NE COLORADO. DOES NOT APPEAR
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AS 24 HOURS
AGO, BUT CONTINUED HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNDER ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW FOR DECREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND A QUICK SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, FAR
SW ZONES (THAT CLEAR OUT THE SOONEST) MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. STEADY SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
MUGGY CONDITIONS...AT LEAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.
FEEL THE 06Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE OF HOW THINGS ARE PLAYING
OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH GIVES ME CONFIDENCE THAT IT PROVIDES A
REASONABLE IDEA OF WHAT TO EXPECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT'S
SLATED TO ARRIVE IN OUR N RIGHT AROUND 00Z. SEVERAL CAMS HAVE
BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT THAT A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OFF TO OUR N,
THEN SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO OVERLAP THE STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
LINE TO BECOME SEVERE. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, BUT THE
LINEAR FORCING AND SEASONABLY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ARGUE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS POOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO AS HIGH AS 2" WILL ALSO SUPPORT VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP HYDRO CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
MAIN STORY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE MUCH DRIER AND
ALSO COOLER AIR THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS, PERHAPS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, FAR W/NW PORTIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIP
INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AM. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A GREAT
WEEKEND TO GET OUTDOORS AND ENJOY SOME PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WX!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW WILL BRING SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION, HELPING TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY (2,000-3,500J/KG OF MUCAPE) ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION, SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE, WILL HELP ORGANIZE AN AROUND 1006MB SURFACE
CYCLONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
AS THIS CYCLONE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL UNDERGOING FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA/KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, LIKELY
DRIVING A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN MAINLY 7PM AND 1AM. GIVEN THE
HIGH INSTABILITY (>2,000J/KG OF CAPE), STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (UP TO 8-9C/KM) AND 25-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR (EBWD);
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60-70MPH.
THOUGH NOT THE PRIMARY CONCERN, A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
STILL BE ABLE TO GROW TALL ENOUGH TO FORM HAIL STONES UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDES THE FULL
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WITH MOST OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80 INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5).
BEYOND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY, WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-30MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS, DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES WILL STILL BE EXPECTED TO RAISE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY (20-50% PRECIPITATION
CHANCE RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT). SOUTHWEST U.S. RIDGING ACROSS THE
WEEKEND WILL HELP FEND OFF MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE JET
STREAM IS SHOVED FURTHER NORTHWARD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON (NORTHERLY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-
35MPH) AS THE SURFACE LOW PULL EAST AND AWAY. LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL COME AS HIGHER PRESSURE RESETTLES BACK INTO REGION.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
DOWN TO THE 80S. WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO CLEARING SKIES,
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE
START OFF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
COMPLEX TAF PERIOD GIVEN RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS,
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST, AND RECENT SFC OBS
CONFIRM, SOME RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS IN THE
EAR AREA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ARE NOT HANDLING
THIS WELL...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THIS THREAT ON
RECENT RAP AND NAMNEST RUNS. THESE MODELS EXPAND THE STRATUS
THIS MORNING AND PERSIST IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH 15-17Z. AS SUCH,
HAVE DETERIORATED THE TAFS QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS UPDATE,
AND HAVE THE STRATUS EXPANDING INTO GRI BY AROUND 09Z. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS, THERE'S ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MODELS
DON'T HAVE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS LAST NIGHT, SO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
A SPECIFIC FEW HOUR TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE PROB30 GROUP AND WILL AMEND TO TEMPO ONCE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE IMMINENT.
STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH THE MORNING,
BUT MAY NOT RETURN TO VFR UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR STORMS LOOK TO ARRIVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE 01Z TO 06Z (FRI)
TIME FRAME. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS.
NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, BECOMING A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...THIES
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