485
FXUS63 KGID 310619
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
119 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- IN THE WAKE OF OUR EVENING-OVERNIGHT STORMS, CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION (20-50%) DOES NOT COME UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- HIGHS WILL RANGE THE 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A MINI
WARM UP HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK (UPPER 80S AND
90S).
- NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD PEAK AS HIGH AS
30-45MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
TONIGHT...
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE HELPED ADVECT IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS TODAY (70S TO
LOW 80S DEWPOINTS). DESPITE THE EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO FAR, TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOME NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AREAS MAY PEAK AS HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY. THE MAIN STORY, HOWEVER, WILL BE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT FROM EASTERN
COLORADO/WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LEAD TO SOME MID-LEVEL PRESSURE
FALLS AS WELL AS SOME VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE PAIRED WITH COOLING
ALOFT HAS HELPED INCREASE INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY (UP TO 2,000-
3,500J/KG OF MUCAPE). A 1004MB SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL HELP STEER FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THIS PROCESS
WILL IN TURN HELP DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STORMS. STORMS ORGANIZING
INTO A LINE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BE EXPECTED TO DRIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN MAINLY 7PM AND 1AM TONIGHT. AS OF
2PM TODAY, THIS LINE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN
CHERRY COUNTY IN NEBRASKA BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS AND THE AGITATED CUMULUS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (25-40MPH) WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, THE BASE INGREDIENTS WILL BE MET FOR
SEVERE STORM CHARACTERISTICS. THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW OF THE STRONGER/TALLER STORMS, THE
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WITH MORE UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (5-
6C/KM), SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE HAIL THREAT MORE LIMITED TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION, THOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE EXPECTED WITHIN SEVERAL
OF THESE STORMS (1.5-2" PWATS), GIVEN THEIR FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
NATURE, THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER NOW INCLUDES THE FULL AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE STORMS TONIGHT, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT (20-50% CHANCES FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA). THIS
DRIER PATTERN WILL COME AS SOUTHWEST U.S. RIDGING EXPANDS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE LOW PULLING
EAST AND AWAY ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE BEHIND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THAT
MAY PEAK AS HIGH AS 30-45MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, DRIER
AND RELATIVELY "COOLER" TEMPERATURES WITH KEEP HIGHS PEAKING IN THE
80S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE EVENTUALLY
SETTLING BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIGHTEN WINDS WITH
DIRECTIONS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY SUNDAY. THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE WITH HIGHS RETURNING
BACK TO THE MID 80S AND 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS (SAVE FOR THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF A ROGUE/BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER AT SOME POINT YET
THIS MORNING). THE MAIN ISSUES/POSSIBLE CONCERNS ARE:
1) THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW (PERHAPS SEVERAL?) HOURS
OF SUB-VFR CEILING THIS MORNING (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) ALONG WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG (MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.
2) A RATHER BREEZY (ARGUABLY WINDY?) DAY BY LATE-JULY STANDARDS,
WITH ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON FEATURING NORTHERLY GUSTS UP
AROUND 30KT.
- SUB-VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY POTENTIAL:
STARTING OFF VFR OUT OF THE GATE THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER, VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY
INSISTENT THAT LOWER CLOUDS AND/OR LIGHT FOG WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND/OR MATERIALIZE OVERHEAD BY AROUND 10Z, WITH
ESPECIALLY SUB-VFR CEILING PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH AS LONG AS
16-18Z. AS FOR CEILING, CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR, BUT HAVE GONE
WITH PREVAILING MVFR 10-18Z FOR NOW...WHICH MAY NOT NECESSARILY
BE "NON-STOP" EITHER THAT ENTIRE TIME. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE KEPT ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUD POTENTIAL IN SCT/FEW
GROUPS, AS AT LEAST "RANDOM" PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS COULD
STILL BE AROUND. AS FOR VISIBILITY, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES TOWARD SUNRISE SHOULD REALLY KEEP THINGS FROM REALLY
"FOGGING IN" TOO BADLY, BUT ESPECIALLY 10-14Z COULD EASILY
FEATURE LIGHT FOG AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR FOR NOW.
- WIND DETAILS:
RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE EARLY THIS MORNING, A VERY LIGHT
SPEED/VARIABLE DIRECTION REGIME PREVAILS. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BY MID-SUMMER STANDARDS, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND
20KT SUSTAINED/GUSTS 25+KT BY MID-LATE MORNING...AND THEN
PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON SUSTAINED AROUND 22KT/GUSTS AROUND
30KT. THE EVENING WILL THEN BRING A STEADY DECLINE, WITH GUSTS
UNDER 20KT BY 01-02Z AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10KT BY 03Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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