334
FXUS63 KGID 010601
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE BACK UPWARD THROUGH
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S-MID
90S IN MOST OF OUR AREA.
- OUR NEXT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE A LITTLE
SOONER THAN IT APPEARED 24 HOURS AGO...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
LATE MON NIGHT-TUESDAY DAYTIME. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL-HIGHEST
CHANCES/MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED TUES
NIGHT-WED AM.
- HIGHS MAY TAKE A 10-15 DEGREE DROP HEADING INTO
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S). ANOTHER MINI WARM UP
IS FAVORED TO FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT, A "COOLER" AND
DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA TODAY. A 1008MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED STEER THE BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR TODAY (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45MPH). THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (THE
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING LAST NIGHTS STORMS)
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY. THIS WILL LEAVE SPACE FOR A
SOUTHWEST U.S. RIDGE TO GROW AND EXPAND UP INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. RISING PRESSURE FROM THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS TO
KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. IN ADDITION, A MINI WARM UP WILL
TRANSPIRE FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY AS SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY
TURNING SURFACE WINDS RETURN (A MIX OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DIURNAL HEATING). HIGHS BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, RESIDING MOSTLY IN THE 90S BY
MONDAY. A FEW FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS
LOCATIONS COULD EVEN NEAR THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS (30- 60%
CHANCE).
THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TUESDAY AS A NORTHWEST U.S.
TROUGH IS FAVORED TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WILL COME WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS OUT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR OUR NEBRASKA AREAS
(20%-40% FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LINE AND UP TO
50-65% FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80). THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE COMES AS ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO NARROWS
DOWN ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT FALLS OUTSIDE OF THE RANGE FOR HIGHER-
RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, WE ARE NOT ABLE TO
PROVIDE MANY ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN REGARD TO SPECIFICS (COVERAGE
OR INTENSITY) AT THIS TIME. THIS EVENT, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE
AREAS NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS.
MODEL CONFIDENCE PAST TUESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN (WIDENING
GAP BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH NBM PERCENTILES OR WIDER RANGE OF
MODELED OUTCOMES). THIS INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY COMES AS THE THE TWO
LEADING LREF CLUSTERS BEGIN TO SHOW DIVERGING SCENARIOS TO HOW THE
MID-WEEK TROUGH MAY PROGRESS. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THIS
FEATURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION, ITS PRESENCE WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LEADING
CLUSTER/SCENARIO (WEIGHTED MORE ON THE ENS & GEPS ENSEMBLES) IS
LEANING MORE ON A DRIER AND WARMER END TO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
SECOND LEADING CLUSTER/SCENARIO (WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE GEFS)
LEANS TOWARD A MORE MILD AND WETTER END TO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS FOR THE MID TO END OF WEEK
FORECAST AS THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO NARROW MORE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD (AT LEAST 90
PERCENT OF IT) FEATURING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES, AND
THERE IS 100 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE PERIOD STAYS
PRECIPITATION-FREE. THE ONLY POSSIBLE "CATCHES" INVOLVE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY AND AN EVER LOWER
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILING LATER THIS MORNING (MORE ON THIS
BELOW). AS FOR WINDS, THEY WILL BE A MINIMAL ISSUE, WITH
DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD GENERALLY NORTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING VARIABLE/LIGHT SATURDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
REGISTER AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME, BUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL FEATURE MODEST GUSTS UP TO AROUND 16-17KT.
- LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF SUB-VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY:
WHILE ODDS FAVOR NEITHER OF THESE THINGS BECOMING MUCH OF AN
ISSUE, AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT
FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT MAINLY 10-14Z, AND AT LEAST A
BRIEF INSTANCE OR TWO OF MVFR CEILING ALSO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT MAINLY 10-17Z. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR IN TAFS,
BUT DID OPT TO "HINT" AT BOTH POSSIBILITIES WITH "6SM BR" AND
"FEW015" GROUPS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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