727
FXUS63 KGID 011101
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
601 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROM AN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY/COMFORT STANDPOINT (ALL BUT
GUARANTEED DRY, NOT OVERLY-HOT OR WINDY AND FEATURING
SEASONABLY-LOW DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS), THIS WEEKEND'S
WEATHER IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS FOR EARLY-AUGUST...ENJOY!
- SHORT-TERM SMOKE MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE INCREASINGLY-
SUGGESTIVE THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
ALOFT DRIFTING OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY,
GIVING THAT ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR "MILKY HAZE" LOOK TO OTHERWISE
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
- MONDAY DAYTIME REMAINS DRY, BUT TEMPS CREEP UP A BIT MORE
(MOST OF OUR AREA LOW-MID 90S) AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
RETURN TO BREEZY TERRITORY.
- STARTING MONDAY NIGHT (A BIT EARLIER THAN IT PREVIOUSLY
APPEARED)...AND LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...
WE RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN FEATURING
VARIOUS/INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS (AND
PROBABLY OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL). RIGHT NOW, THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST CHANCES/AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ARE
TENTATIVELY CENTERED ON TUES NIGHT-WED AM.
- AFTER PEAKING ON MONDAY, COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES (MAINLY
70S-80S) RETURN TUES-WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE BOUNCING BACK
UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- FORECAST CHANGES WORTH NOTING/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- OTHER THAN OUR NEXT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVING TO
PARTS OF OUR AREA A BIT SOONER (MONDAY NIGHT), REALLY THERE
ARE NO TRULY NOTEWORTHY FORECAST CHANGES TO SPEAK OF VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO.
- TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THE "BIG PICTURE" THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK: OUR COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME
RESULTS FROM OUR CENTRAL PLAINS REGION RESIDING UNDER BENIGN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE-SCALE
HIGH/RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND A LARGE-
SCALE LOW/TROUGH TAKING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THEREAFTER, THIS PATTERN ABRUPTLY CHANGES AS VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/DAKOTAS AND
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, QUICKLY "FLATTENING OUT" THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
AND PUTTING OUR REGION BACK INTO GENERALLY QUASI-ZONAL (WEST-
TO- EAST) FLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER...AND SUBJECT TO
INTERMITTENT WAVES THAT WILL SPARK RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY-WEEK SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRIVE A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUES-WED.
-- FOCUSING SOLELY ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS (THROUGH
SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON AM):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
IN THE WAKE OF AN UNUSUALLY-WINDY (FOR JULY) FRIDAY THAT
FEATURED PEAK NORTHERLY GUSTS COMMONLY 35-45 MPH, AS EXPECTED
WINDS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN THE EVENING. WHILE NOT
CURRENTLY TRULY CALM IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE HEART OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE AXIS RESIDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA OVER NORTHWEST NE, SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY NO MORE THAN 4-8
MPH IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW VERY SMALL/TRANSIENT PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS
PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, SKIES ARE ALMOST
PRISTINELY CLEAR AT THIS TIME OVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
(CWA), WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT 59-62 IN
MOST PLACES (ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW THE AUG. 1ST "NORMAL").
IN THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDES
UNDER INCREASINGLY-NORTHERLY FLOW, DIRECTED BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE
RIDGE/HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND A SEASONABLY-
DEEP/STRONG CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY CHURNING SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE IA/IL/MO BORDER AREA.
- EARLY THIS MORNING:
LITERALLY THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME
MAINLY LIGHT AND LIMITED-IN-COVERAGE FOG, WITH A FEW AIRPORT
SENSORS THUS FAR SHOWING SPORADIC VISIBILITY DOWN TO AROUND 5
MILES IN THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REGIME MARKED BY VERY TIGHT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. WHILE THIS VERY LOCALIZED FOG WILL SURELY
BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT IN VARIOUS RIVER VALLEYS/LOWER SPOTS
THROUGH AROUND 8 AM, IT IS STILL DEEMED TOO LIMITED OF A CONCERN
FOR "OFFICIAL" INCLUSION IN OUR GENERAL FORECAST PRODUCTS.
- TODAY:
ALL IN ALL, A GREAT OPENING DAY OF AUGUST TO GET OUT AND ENJOY!
MOST NOTICEABLY VERSUS YESTERDAY, THERE WILL BE LESS WIND. AT
THE SURFACE, THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION, BUT REMAIN CENTERED SLIGHTLY TO OUR NORTH, PROMOTING
CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZES. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL ONLY
AVERAGE 10-15 MPH/GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH...OVERALL
LIGHTEST WEST AND STRONGEST EAST (ESPECIALLY COUNTIES EAST OF
HWY 281). AS FOR SKY COVER, ACTUAL CLOUDS WILL BE ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT. HOWEVER, A HIGHER-LEVEL "MILKY HAZE" IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY-LIKELY PER SHORT TERM SMOKE MODELING...DIRECTED
OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES MAINLY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CANADA. AT THIS TIME, THESE HAZY SKIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, AND WE ARE THUS CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN
YESTERDAY...HIGHS MID-80S MOST PLACES, BUT WARMER UPPER 80S TO
RIGHT AROUND 90 IN OUR KS COUNTIES ALONG WITH FURNAS COUNTY
AREA. DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY-LOW, WITH
DEWPOINTS NO HIGHER THAN LOW 60S IN EASTERN COUNTIES AND ONLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S ESPECIALLY FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
QUITE SIMPLY, ANOTHER GUARANTEED DRY/CLEAR (ASIDE FROM ANY SMOKE
HAZE ALOFT) NIGHT. THE LIGHT-BUT-STEADY NORTHERLY BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING...BECOMING VERY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
PLACES DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW OUR LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...CURRENTLY AIMED 58-62 IN MOST SPOTS. MUCH LIKE THE
CURRENT LATE NIGHT/EARLY- MORNING, WE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME
MINOR/LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN NOT ENOUGH TO APPEAR
WORTHY OF FORMAL FORECAST INCLUSION.
- SUNDAY DAYTIME:
ANOTHER OVERALL-GREAT SUMMER WEEKEND WEATHER DAY, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ANOTHER NOTCH WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB 2-5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. MORE
SPECIFICALLY, HIGHS ARE AIMED FROM MID-UPPER 80S IN MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF OUR CWA...TO THE UPPER 80S-MID 90S IN MOST OF
OUR SOUTHWEST HALF (EVEN PUSHING UPPER 90S ESPECIALLY
FURNAS/ROOKS COUNTIES). WINDS WILL START THE DAY VERY
LIGHT...AND ONLY PICK UP MODESTLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AFTERNOON
SPEEDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY (GENERALLY SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH
AND SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH ESPECIALLY WEST), BUT THIS
TIME DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. OTHER THAN
SOME VERY THIN HIGH CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME CONTINUED SMOKY HAZE
ALOFT (PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS TODAY?)...SKIES WILL BE OVERALL
SUNNY.
- SUNDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER DRY/UNEVENTFUL NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON'T GET QUITE AS
COOL AS THE PRECEDING FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY DUE TO LIGHT-BUT-
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES AVERAGING AT LEAST 5-12 MPH. AS A
RESULT, LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP 5+ DEGREES MILDER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH MOST PLACES FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT 64-68 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT, A "COOLER" AND
DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA TODAY. A 1008MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED STEER THE BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR TODAY (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45MPH). THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (THE
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING LAST NIGHTS STORMS)
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY. THIS WILL LEAVE SPACE FOR A
SOUTHWEST U.S. RIDGE TO GROW AND EXPAND UP INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. RISING PRESSURE FROM THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS TO
KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. IN ADDITION, A MINI WARM UP WILL
TRANSPIRE FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY AS SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY
TURNING SURFACE WINDS RETURN (A MIX OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DIURNAL HEATING). HIGHS BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, RESIDING MOSTLY IN THE 90S BY
MONDAY. A FEW FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS
LOCATIONS COULD EVEN NEAR THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS (30- 60%
CHANCE).
THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TUESDAY AS A NORTHWEST U.S.
TROUGH IS FAVORED TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WILL COME WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS OUT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR OUR NEBRASKA AREAS
(20%-40% FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LINE AND UP TO
50-65% FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80). THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE COMES AS ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO NARROWS
DOWN ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT FALLS OUTSIDE OF THE RANGE FOR HIGHER-
RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, WE ARE NOT ABLE TO
PROVIDE MANY ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN REGARD TO SPECIFICS (COVERAGE
OR INTENSITY) AT THIS TIME. THIS EVENT, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE
AREAS NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS.
MODEL CONFIDENCE PAST TUESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN (WIDENING
GAP BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH NBM PERCENTILES OR WIDER RANGE OF
MODELED OUTCOMES). THIS INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY COMES AS THE THE TWO
LEADING LREF CLUSTERS BEGIN TO SHOW DIVERGING SCENARIOS TO HOW THE
MID-WEEK TROUGH MAY PROGRESS. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THIS
FEATURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION, ITS PRESENCE WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LEADING
CLUSTER/SCENARIO (WEIGHTED MORE ON THE ENS & GEPS ENSEMBLES) IS
LEANING MORE ON A DRIER AND WARMER END TO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
SECOND LEADING CLUSTER/SCENARIO (WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE GEFS)
LEANS TOWARD A MORE MILD AND WETTER END TO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS FOR THE MID TO END OF WEEK
FORECAST AS THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO NARROW MORE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD (AT LEAST 95
PERCENT OF IT) FEATURING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES (SAVE
FOR SOME SMOKY HAZE ALOFT), WITH 100 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN
REMAINING PRECIPITATION-FREE. TRULY THE ONLY FORESEEABLE "CATCH"
TO VFR IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF/MAINLY LIGHT FOG RIGHT AWAY
THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AM
(HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR, BUT AT LEAST "HINT" AT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A "6SM BR" GROUP 12-14Z). ANY EARLIER LIMITED
CONCERN FOR MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING LOOKS EVEN LESS PROBABLE
NOW, SO HAVE REMOVED EVEN HINTS OF THIS FROM TAFS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A MINIMAL ISSUE, WITH DIRECTION THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING GENERALLY NORTHERLY, BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE
WITH VERY LIGHT SPEEDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL REGISTER AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
TIME, BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF TODAY WILL CARRY GUST POTENTIAL
UP TO AROUND 17KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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