285
FXUS63 KGID 012330
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
SUNDAY, JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY.
- SUNDAY AND MORE SO INTO MONDAY BRINGS A TRANSITION FROM
SHARPER NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS THE
MAIN RIDGING IS BROKEN DOWN. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY EVENING
ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WILL FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DRIVEN BY PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING GENERALLY FAVORS
THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
FURTHER OUT IN TIME WITH LOCATION/COVERAGE.
- HIGHS FOR MONDAY CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA (POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 IN THE SW)...WITH MORE 70S-80S FOR
TUE-WED, DRIVEN BY THOSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BEEN A QUIET, PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS A WELL-AMPLIFIED ONE.
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING SHARPER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SANDWICHED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW WITH NORTHWARD-
EXTENDING RIDGING AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING THAT OUTSIDE
OF A BIT OF SCATTERED LOWER-LEVEL CUMULUS AS WELL AS SOME
HIGHER-LEVEL THIN SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OFF TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST, CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OUT THERE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY SURPRISES AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-80S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THAT SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES PUSHING EAST. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AROUND
DAWN...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS (POTENTIALLY OUTRIGHT CALM) ARE EXPECTED TO BE.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, LOOKING LIKE MAINLY IN LOWER-
LYING AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY, NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST, WHICH
REMAINS DRY. MODELS SHOWING CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE AREA...BUT OFF TO OUR WEST, A LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PAC
NW/WEST COAST, STARTING TO DAMPEN THE RIDGING. AS THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST, TROUGHING IS DEEPENING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, SPREADING THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTER WINDS
AREA-WIDE...FAR WESTERN AREAS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A
TOUCH WARMER...WITH MID-80S IN THE EAST TO LOW-90S FURTHER WEST.
NEW WORK WEEK...
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE UPCOMING NEW WORK WEEK IS THE TRANSITION
FROM AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO ONE THAT MORE ZONAL
IN NATURE.
MONDAY IS THE DAY WHERE THE BRUNT OF THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...AS
MODELS SHOW THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL CANADA, AND THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTH WELL INTO THE ROCKIES. AN APPROACHING SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING IT NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, RESULTING FROM A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALSO EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE EAST TO AROUND 100 IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING, THIS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE OVERALL COVERAGE GIVEN THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
BETTER FOCUSED TO THE NORTH. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MODELS
SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
ALONG ITS EDGE REMAINING FOCUSED ALONG OUR NORTH-NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE OF THOSE LINGERING
COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK IS DRIVEN BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN THAT ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE FLOW. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...WITH THE BETTER
OVERALL CHANCES FAVORING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE
UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE...AS THAT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF ANY SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES...WHICH COULD BE GREATLY IMPACTED BY ANY ACTIVITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. HARD TO HAVE TON OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FINER DETAILS THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME ONE GOES. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO...FORECAST HIGHS ARE COOLER MID-WEEK, WITH MORE
70S-80S FOR TUE-WED...WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 80S-90S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT DIRECTIONS AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
12 KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI
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