387
FXUS63 KGID 060611
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
111 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..AVIATION/FORECAST UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE SEASONABLY MILD/PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EACH DAY AND PEAK
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS, AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- PATTERN TRENDS SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- UPDATE TO ACKNOWLEDGE ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS
MORNING:
ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AGO THIS FORECASTER ISSUED AN UPDATE HERE
ESSENTIALLY DISCUSSING THE "PROS VS. CONS" OF WHETHER OR NOT WE
WOULD END UP WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/4
MILE OR LESS). AT THE TIME, IT WAS CONSIDERED THAT THINGS COULD
LEAN EITHER WAY...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT A LOWER STRATUS
DECK (BASED AROUND 1,500 FT AGL) WOULD EXPAND AGGRESSIVELY
ENOUGH ACROSS OUR AREA TO PERHAPS RESULT IN MORE "GENERIC
LIGHTER FOG". WHILE THIS STRATUS HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE, IT
DIDN'T START DOING SO NEARLY SOON ENOUGH/AGGRESSIVELY TO KEEP
FOG FROM ALREADY FORMING TONIGHT/VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT, IT NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL VISIBILITY PROGS (INCLUDING FROM HRRR) WILL PROBABLY COME
TO FRUITION FAIRLY WELL, WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS
AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. AS A
RESULT, A FORMAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS SINCE BEEN ISSUED FOR
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, CURRENTLY VALID UNTIL 10 AM.
TAKING THE HRRR LITERALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG MIGHT ACTUALLY LINGER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 11 AM (UNUSUALLY LATE INTO THE MORNING FOR AUGUST!),
SO AT LEAST A LOCALIZED EXTENSION-IN-TIME CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER REMAINS, ESP.
FOR AREAS S OF I-80. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL
FOR EARLY AUGUST - THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS YESTERDAY - IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. WINDS AREN'T NEARLY AS BREEZY AS
YESTERDAY, EITHER. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THE DECREASING TREND AND
ALLOW FOR A LATE DAY RUN INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS, SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY
PLEASANT LATE-SUMMER EVENING.
THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY RIGHT AROUND DAWN. FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT MODELS ARE HITTING AREAS
ALONG/S OF PLATTE RIVER DOWN TO AROUND THE KS/NE STATE LINE THE
HARDEST. GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS DO
SUPPORT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW VISIBILITIES, SO A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, HAVE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER IN THE GRIDS
AND CONTINUED MENTION IN THE MOST RECENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO). ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW AND FAIRLY QUICK
TO MIX OUT BETWEEN 8-10AM THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A DOME OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW BUILDS/EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE THE PRIMARY BAND OF
WESTERLIES TO RETREAT WELL N OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER 90S TO
LOWER 100S OVER THE WEEKEND, WARMEST IN OUR FAR SW ZONES. SO NO
REASON WHY DEW POINTS WOULDN'T RETURN BACK INTO AT LEAST THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S, AND WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME MID TO UPPER 70S IN
TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS ALONG/E OF HWY 281. HEAT INDICES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, THOUGH ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
105F. WITH THAT SAID, ANY SIGNIFICANT UPWARD TREND IN FORECAST
PEAK HEAT INDICES COULD WARRANT ONE WHEN CONSIDERING THE HEAT
WILL BE AROUND FOR 3-4 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT'S EARLY
AUGUST AND WE'RE WELL ACCLIMATED TO HEAT & HUMIDITY AT THIS
POINT, SO WOULD WANT TO SEE PEAK FORECAST VALUES MORE THAN JUST
105-106F. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SRLY BREEZES TO HELP OUT TOO.
FORECAST APPEARS PRETTY QUIET IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS ALWAYS IN THESE TYPES OF PATTERNS, WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR SOME "SNEAKY" WEAK WAVES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE NEARBY OR JUST TO THE N...BUT THESE WOULD TEND TO FAVOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AREAS MAINLY N OF I-80.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
AMONGST ENSEMBLES (AND EVEN SOME DETERMINISTIC RUNS) TO FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE MOST RECENT
50-MEMBER 12Z EPS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF POSITIVE 5-DAY
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE 12-17TH
TIME FRAME. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND REORIENT
MORE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR FREQUENT RAIN CHANCES FROM WEAK WAVES WITHIN
INCREASINGLY FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND/OR FROM CONVECTION
WORKING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. EITHER WAY, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO WORK IN FROM THE SW AND AID IN PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PROMOTE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO TANK OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PREVAILING LIFR VSBYS/CIGS BY 06/09-06/10Z.
THIS FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM 06/14-06/16Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DIMINISHING TO 5-6KTS BY 07/00Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ROSSI
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