989
FXUS63 KGID 061133
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
633 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH VISIBILITIES OF A 1/4 MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S AND POSSIBLY OVER 100 BY
SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
- ALTHOUGH QUITE UNCERTAIN, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. 0Z REFS GUIDANCE
INDICATED A 30-70% CHANCE OF SEEING VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW A 1/4
MILE BY SUNRISE. THE SPOTTY EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS DECK TO
THE SE OF THE AREA HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN REALIZING THESE
LOWER VISIBILITIES, PROMPTING AN AREA WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 10AM. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG
MAY LINGER AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF THIS ADVISORY, AS INDICATED
BY LATEST HRRR MODEL.
TODAY WILL START THE WARMING TREND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUILDS
EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S
TODAY, THOUGH THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF
THE FOG THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 90S, POSSIBLY EVEN OVER 100 IN SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
BY SATURDAY. WHILE SEEING HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEED 100 DEGREES
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY (30-50% CHANCE),
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INCREASES SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, FORCED BY SOME
MODELS RESOLVING UP A POCKET OF VORTICITY LOOKING TO RIDE THE NW
FLOW ON THE FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, FORECASTING THESE
"RIDGE RIDERS" 3 DAYS+ OUT REMAINS CHALLENGING, AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO FORECAST THESE WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS. NONETHELESS,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND AT LEAST 30 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER REMAINS, ESP.
FOR AREAS S OF I-80. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL
FOR EARLY AUGUST - THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS YESTERDAY - IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. WINDS AREN'T NEARLY AS BREEZY AS
YESTERDAY, EITHER. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THE DECREASING TREND AND
ALLOW FOR A LATE DAY RUN INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS, SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY
PLEASANT LATE-SUMMER EVENING.
THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY RIGHT AROUND DAWN. FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT MODELS ARE HITTING AREAS
ALONG/S OF PLATTE RIVER DOWN TO AROUND THE KS/NE STATE LINE THE
HARDEST. GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS DO
SUPPORT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW VISIBILITIES, SO A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, HAVE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER IN THE GRIDS
AND CONTINUED MENTION IN THE MOST RECENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO). ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW AND FAIRLY QUICK
TO MIX OUT BETWEEN 8-10AM THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A DOME OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW BUILDS/EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE THE PRIMARY BAND OF
WESTERLIES TO RETREAT WELL N OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER 90S TO
LOWER 100S OVER THE WEEKEND, WARMEST IN OUR FAR SW ZONES. SO NO
REASON WHY DEW POINTS WOULDN'T RETURN BACK INTO AT LEAST THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S, AND WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME MID TO UPPER 70S IN
TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS ALONG/E OF HWY 281. HEAT INDICES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, THOUGH ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
105F. WITH THAT SAID, ANY SIGNIFICANT UPWARD TREND IN FORECAST
PEAK HEAT INDICES COULD WARRANT ONE WHEN CONSIDERING THE HEAT
WILL BE AROUND FOR 3-4 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT'S EARLY
AUGUST AND WE'RE WELL ACCLIMATED TO HEAT & HUMIDITY AT THIS
POINT, SO WOULD WANT TO SEE PEAK FORECAST VALUES MORE THAN JUST
105-106F. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SRLY BREEZES TO HELP OUT TOO.
FORECAST APPEARS PRETTY QUIET IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS ALWAYS IN THESE TYPES OF PATTERNS, WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR SOME "SNEAKY" WEAK WAVES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE NEARBY OR JUST TO THE N...BUT THESE WOULD TEND TO FAVOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AREAS MAINLY N OF I-80.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
AMONGST ENSEMBLES (AND EVEN SOME DETERMINISTIC RUNS) TO FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE MOST RECENT
50-MEMBER 12Z EPS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF POSITIVE 5-DAY
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE 12-17TH
TIME FRAME. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND REORIENT
MORE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR FREQUENT RAIN CHANCES FROM WEAK WAVES WITHIN
INCREASINGLY FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND/OR FROM CONVECTION
WORKING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. EITHER WAY, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO WORK IN FROM THE SW AND AID IN PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WIDESPREAD LIFR STRATUS AND SOME DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN
TO IMPROVE AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 06/14-06/16Z...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THIS MORNING,
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS LATER TODAY AND DIMINISHING
AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...SCOTT
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ROSSI
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