403
FXUS63 KGID 062350
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
650 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY, BECOMING
DOWNRIGHT HOT OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100
DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- ALTHOUGH QUITE UNCERTAIN, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MAIN
CONCERN IS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND BRINGS
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF TODAY THANKS TO WEAK
MIXING WITHING THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING FURTHER E AND ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY
INCREASING S/SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS. HUMIDITY
IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN (DEW POINTS BACK INTO HE MID
TO UPPER 60S), BUT SHOULD STILL BE A SEASONABLY PLEASANT EVENING
GIVEN THE LIGHT BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THROUGH SUNSET.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY MORE FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AM WITH RETURN OF DOWNRIGHT MUGGY
CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROGS SEEM TO FAVOR THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION
BEING MORE STRATUS THAN FOG, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STEADY
5-10 MPH SRLY WINDS TONIGHT. MODELS WERE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON
THE FOG LAST NIGHT AND ARE EVEN LESS EXCITED ABOUT IT TONIGHT,
SO HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS, BUT LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE LATEST HWO.
MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE RETURN OF WARM/HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS - BUT THERE'S ALSO ONE OR TWO, ALBEIT HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH, AS WELL. DOME
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE
90S, TO EVEN LOW 100S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, EACH AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE WARMER KS ZONES WILL ALSO SEE OVERNIGHT
LOWS CREEP BACK UP INTO MID 70S. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
SUN-MON TIME FRAME, AFTER MOISTURE HAS HAD MORE TIME TO POOL
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE PEAK HEAT
INDICES NEAR THE 105F CRITERIA, AND THE WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ADD TO THE "ACCUMULATIVE EFFECTS" THAT COME WITH HIGH HEAT.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IT'S NOW EARLY AUGUST AND WE'RE WELL
ACCUSTOMED TO THE HEAT THAT WAS EVEN HIGHER A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY SIGNS OF AN UPWARD TICK
IN DEW POINTS OR AIR TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR A HEAT
HEADLINE - AGAIN, MAINLY ALONG AND S OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE.
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES ROUNDING THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
MAINLY IN THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. CAMS ARE
QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH DETAILS, HOWEVER - DIFFERING
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE. SOME
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS MAINLY A SATURDAY AM CHANCE, WHEREAS
OTHER MODELS WEAKEN THE AM ACTIVITY BEFORE IT GETS TO US AND
PUTS THE HIGHEST CHANCES WITH POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY PROBABLY WON'T BE A
LIMITING FACTOR REGARDLESS OF SCENARIO, AND REGION WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO AT LEAST
SOME MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS WARRANTED. JUST
REALLY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS
TIME, UNFORTUNATELY.
MODELS STILL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR ROUGHLY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK DOWN INTO PRIMARILY 80S
FOR NEB ZONES BY WEDNESDAY, THEN AREA WIDE FOR THURSDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND REORIENT FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO MORE OF THE DEEP SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY
STREAM OF MONSOONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH FREQUENT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
ZONAL TO NW UPPER FLOW. FAR TOO EARLY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DETAILS, BUT BROADLY SPEAKING, THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, LIKELY ON A DAILY
BASIS...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED IN RECENT ENSEMBLE PRECIP ANOMALY
PLOTS FOR NEXT WEEK. HOPEFULLY THIS PANS OUT, AS MANY AREAS
COULD USE SOME MOISTURE NOW, BUT ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
HOT, AND MAINLY DRY, WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
LOWER CLOUDS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WHILE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE LINGERING AROUND THE AUH-JYR AREAS...HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING
INCREASING COVERAGE OF LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PASSING, PUSHING BACK NNE WITH TIME. CONTINUED THE MENTION
OF MVFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR CEILINGS AT BOTH SITES, ESP BETWEEN
10-14Z. MORE UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITIES
GET WITH THE EXPECTED STRATUS IN PLACE...LOWEST VALUES LIKELY TO
BE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NNW
OF THE TERMINAL SITES. WINDS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING AROUND
10 MPH. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY, WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY...WITH
MORE UNCERTAINTY CLOSER TO MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AS A SFC BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE AREA. WINDS MAY BE MORE
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY DEPENDING ON HOW
THAT BOUNDARY TRACKS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ADP
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