936
FXUS63 KGID 090739
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
239 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AS WARM AS 105 DEGREES
(ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST KANSAS COUNTIES) TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 90S NORTH OF I-80, AND FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE) FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A
MUCH MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNING WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES (70S/80S) WILL ACCOMPANY THE MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AN AREA OF STRATUS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS HAVE THIS AREA OF
STRATUS EXPANDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...
LIMITING ITS COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TO
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH HAZY SUNSHINE
AS ELEVATED SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS WAS DONE YESTERDAY, NUDGED DOWN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THEIR TRUE
POTENTIAL DUE TO THIS HAZE, AND AS A RESULT, OPTED AGAINST A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATER TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS AS BOTH THE EC/GFS TRY TO BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...ALBEIT MOST MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
DRY - DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE.
CONTINUED WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER (WITH VERY SMALL DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES) WILL THEN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND A MORE
ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS REALIZED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
FOLLOWING THE STORMS THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING (NEXT BEST WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES; 20%-30%). SPORADIC AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ROLLING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA,
HOWEVER, CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITHIN A FEW MORE ISOLATED
LOCATIONS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. DUE TO LOW RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY, OUR CONFIDENCE FALLS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM
IN REGARDS TO DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS MAY EMERGE.
GIVEN GENERAL WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED SHEAR (<40KTS), THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN TERMS OF
TONIGHT, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS WOULD FALL
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S STORMS RESIDES. EVEN THEN,
THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (<20% FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION).
THE OTHER FACTOR THAT LOOKS PROBABLE TO REEMERGE AGAIN TONIGHT WOULD
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG (60% CHANCE). AS WITH THE LAST TWO NIGHTS,
CALMING WINDS WITH HIGH SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
(TEMPERATURES COOLING NEAR THEIR DEWPOINTS) MAY BE JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO HELP WITH THE PRODUCTION OF SOME SURFACE CONDENSATION
(FOG). GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARDS THE NORTH, THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION SHOULD FALL NORTH OF I-80. THE HRRR AND
OTHER HREF MEMBERS HAVE ADDITIONALLY SEEMED TO TARGET CENTRAL TO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (IDENTIFIED BY
60% OF THE HREF MEMBERS).
THE MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE HEAT. STEADY SOUTHERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTING WINDS PAIRED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WORK IN TANDEM
TO HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THEIR LIKELY WARMEST POINT OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL BE EXPECTED TO SPAN THE 90S ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA MAY EVEN REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS (20-40%
CHANCES). EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO SET UP AS HIGHS SPREAD THE UPPER 90S TO UP TO 105
DEGREES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS (20-40% CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO
REACH 105 DEGREES). HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ISOLATED NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS, A FEW
UNCERTAINTIES HINDERS OUR CONFIDENCE TO A DEGREE.
THE DECISION TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY WAS WELL
DISCUSSED THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN NEIGHBORING OFFICES. A FEW
QUESTIONS HAVE BEEN RAISED ABOUT IF THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY
LIMIT THE SOLAR FLUX AS WELL AS IF THE MARGINAL DEWPOINTS (50S TO
LOW 60S) WOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105
DEGREES. THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES (MID 60S TO LOW 70S) ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA LOCATIONS, OR AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO SURPASS THE MID 90S. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND THE UNCERTAINTIES, THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY WAS
HELD OFF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
LOOKING AHEAD AT MONDAY, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW
EMERGING OUT FROM THE ROCKIES MAY HELP STEER ANOTHER SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA (MAY PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE BASED ASSENT). GIVEN THE WARM (90S TO LOW 100S HIGHS),
MOIST (MID 60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS) AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS (MUCAPE UP
TO 3,000-5,000J/KM), ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE FROM
THE MARGINAL SHEAR (20-35KTS). THE SPC KEEPS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-80
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
IN TERMS OF THE PATTERN ALOFT, THE REGION FALLS INBETWEEN BROAD
RIDGING TO THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGHING TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES THE
AREA UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. LONG-RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HONE IN ON A MORE ZONAL (LESS AMPLIFIED) PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A
TO SLIGHT RIDGING (HIGHER PRESSURE) PATTERN NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. A FEW OTHER NOTABLE TRENDS THAT EXIST IN
THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST INCLUDES A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD
NEAR THE MIDLE-TO-END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE FORECAST DIP A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO RETURN
BACK TO THE 70S (70-90% CHANCE). DAILY AFTERNOON TO EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ADDITIONALLY LIE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WETTER PATTERN WILL COME AS A FEW UPPER-LEVEL WAVES MAY TRY TO
BREAK OUT OF A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AS
THE NOCTURNAL LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
10/11Z. 1,000-1,500 FT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE AND INCREASE
TO 50-55KTS ATOP LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5KTS.
WITH THESE WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE (30-50% CHANCE) AT BOTH KEAR/KGRI THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 11-14Z. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FOG
FORMATION IS THE FASTER WINDS ALOFT CAUSING MIXING OF THE DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD THIS FOG FORM, VISIBILITIES
COULD DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MILES (OR MVFR CONDITIONS), AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE TEMPO GROUP.
LIGHT VEERING SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME E BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE A MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK BUILDS IN.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...ROSSI
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCOTT
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