646
FXUS63 KGID 102159
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
459 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST AREA WIDE TOMORROW,THEN FOR
ONE MORE DAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WEDNESDAY. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105F EXPECTED. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
GET SOME RELIEF FROM A SOUTHERLY BREEZE, BUT MOST WILL HAVE
ONLY A LIGHT WIND.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO ROLL INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND AN
OVERALL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TAPER OFF TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN (AND MORE CLOUDS), WITH
MAINLY 70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
ONCE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF WE QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO ANOTHER
WARM/HOT AND STEAMY AFTERNOON. MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S DEW POINTS
ARE COMMON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S IS STILL
LEADING TO HEAT INDICES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO KS, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN FROM THE SW, BUT
THIS IS JUST HELPING TO RAISE AIR TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SO NO MATTER WHERE ONE IS
IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, IT CERTAINLY STILL FEELS LIKE SUMMER.
MAIN QUESTION THIS EVENING SURROUNDS THE ABILITY FOR CONVECTION
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT ROLLS E OFF THE HIGH PLAINS,
POTENTIALLY INTO OUR FAR W ZONES AS EARLY AS 02Z-03Z. MOST OF
THE RECENT CAM GUIDANCE WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY PRETTY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET THANKS TO RAPIDLY INCREASING ML CINH. HOWEVER, ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET (UP TO 35-45KT)
COULD HELP OFFSET OR DELAY SOME OF THIS WEAKENING. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN SOME INTENSITY, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS OF
50-60 MPH, AND WOULD LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY W THROUGH NW OF THE
TRI-CITIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN TO MAINLY JUST LINGERING
SHOWERS BY AROUND AND ESP. AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A BIG RAIN-MAKER, EVEN FOR THE AREAS THAT
DO GET HIT, OWING TO THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND.
ANOTHER QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE IF WE SEE YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. NEITHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS OR ENSEMBLES
HAVE AN OVERLY STRONG/OBVIOUS SIGNATURE FOR FOG TONIGHT...BUT
SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION (LIGHT WINDS/HIGH BL RH) AND
PERSISTENCE FROM PAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTS IT'S CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. GUIDANCE THAT DOES HINT AT FOG SUGGESTS IT WOULD BE
MAINLY N OF I-80. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT OUT
OF THE HWO AND JUST INCLUDED SOME FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NOW SHIFTS E AND
REORIENTS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE ZONAL OR EVEN SW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A PARADE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING FREQUENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTS E DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS A SE CONUS UPPER RIDGE IN
AUGUST OFTEN ALLOWS FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BE PULLED WELL N
THEN E ONTO THE PLAINS TO INTERACT WITH THE FREQUENT UPPER
DISTURBANCES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN NEARLY DAILY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THIS BEGINS WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EITHER A MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5)
ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE MORE FREQUENT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO COME INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WE PROBABLY
WON'T BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE HUMIDITY (STILL HAVE A LOT OF
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAPPENING EACH DAY), BUT THE UPPER PATTERN
DESCRIBED ABOVE SHOULD SHUNT ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING FURTHER S, ALLOWING FOR MAINLY 70S AND 80S FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND DURING ANY DAYTIME DRY BREAKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR REST OF TODAY WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SE WINDS.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY AM: QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATE TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) WILL BECOME POSSIBLE - THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE BENEATH A MODERATE 35-40KT LLJ. WEAKENING CONVECTION
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN OVERALL COVERAGE AND ABILITY TO MAINTAIN AS FAR E AS THE
TERMINALS REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. THUS, JUST WENT WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR -SHRA FOR NOW. THE LIGHT WIND AT THE SURFACE COULD
LEAD TO SOME FOG AROUND SUNRISE, THOUGH MODELS CURRENTLY ARE NOT
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. BASED ON THE PAST FEW MORNINGS,
HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE AND WOULDN'T RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LATER FORECASTS TO WORSEN VSBYS INTO THE MVFR OR
EVEN IFR RANGE. CONFIDENCE: CIGS/VSBYS - LOW, PRECIP/LLWS -
MEDIUM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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