813
FXUS63 KGID 111801
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST AREA WIDE TODAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES ANTICIPATED. THE
MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ROOKS, OSBORNE AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO ROLL INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT VERY LIMITED (5-15%) COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND AN
OVERALL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES TAPER OFF TO MORE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS AREAWIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN (AND MORE CLOUDS),
WITH MAINLY 70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY:
1) ADDED A THE REMAINDER OF OUR KS COUNTIES (AN EXTRA TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE N) TO THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH CHANGES FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND COINCIDES
WITH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY PUSHING THE UPPER 90S (I.E.
PHG). THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 104-106F RANGE
ON HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. COULD MAKE THE CASE FOR GOING
EVEN FURTHER N GIVEN WINDS DECREASE AND DEW POINTS INCREASE, BUT
>105F HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE MORE SPORADIC.
2) ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR SE 3 KS COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THESE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD SINKING FRONT. OUR FAR S WILL
ALSO REMAIN QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT, LIKELY ONLY BRIEFLY DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR A FEW HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...COULD MAKE THE
ARGUMENT FOR GOING LARGER WITH IT, BUT CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY
DECREASES FURTHER N OWING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, ALONG
WITH THE OVERALL BOUNDARY POSITION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A WARM START ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE TRI-CITIES AND SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY AROUND
DAYBREAK. SO FAR THIS MORNING, THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD ALONG
WITH MAINLY STEADY SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT
FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING, HAVE A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT KEPT THE WORST OF THE HEAT ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED NORTH TOWARDS
THE SD BORDER. THAT SAID, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION
TRACKING ACROSS SD EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY, BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA REALIZES HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR EXCEED
100 DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WAS CONSIDERED TO
EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FURTHER NORTH TO
INCLUDE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6, UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAST/FAR THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH RETREATS SOUTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME
BEING. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE HOT WILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA THIS EVENING,
BUT AGAIN, COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD CHANGE WEDNESDAY EVENING, HOWEVER,
AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND WEAKENING RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE TIMING IS NOT EXACTLY IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
(LATE NIGHT/OVERNIGHT), THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
BEHIND WEDNESDAYS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND
ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
ONCE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF WE QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO ANOTHER
WARM/HOT AND STEAMY AFTERNOON. MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S DEW POINTS
ARE COMMON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S IS STILL
LEADING TO HEAT INDICES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO KS, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN FROM THE SW, BUT
THIS IS JUST HELPING TO RAISE AIR TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SO NO MATTER WHERE ONE IS
IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, IT CERTAINLY STILL FEELS LIKE SUMMER.
MAIN QUESTION THIS EVENING SURROUNDS THE ABILITY FOR CONVECTION
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT ROLLS E OFF THE HIGH PLAINS,
POTENTIALLY INTO OUR FAR W ZONES AS EARLY AS 02Z-03Z. MOST OF
THE RECENT CAM GUIDANCE WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY PRETTY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET THANKS TO RAPIDLY INCREASING ML CINH. HOWEVER, ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET (UP TO 35-45KT)
COULD HELP OFFSET OR DELAY SOME OF THIS WEAKENING. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN SOME INTENSITY, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS OF
50-60 MPH, AND WOULD LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY W THROUGH NW OF THE
TRI-CITIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN TO MAINLY JUST LINGERING
SHOWERS BY AROUND AND ESP. AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A BIG RAIN-MAKER, EVEN FOR THE AREAS THAT
DO GET HIT, OWING TO THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND.
ANOTHER QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE IF WE SEE YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. NEITHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS OR ENSEMBLES
HAVE AN OVERLY STRONG/OBVIOUS SIGNATURE FOR FOG TONIGHT...BUT
SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION (LIGHT WINDS/HIGH BL RH) AND
PERSISTENCE FROM PAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTS IT'S CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. GUIDANCE THAT DOES HINT AT FOG SUGGESTS IT WOULD BE
MAINLY N OF I-80. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT OUT
OF THE HWO AND JUST INCLUDED SOME FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NOW SHIFTS E AND
REORIENTS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE ZONAL OR EVEN SW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A PARADE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING FREQUENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTS E DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS A SE CONUS UPPER RIDGE IN
AUGUST OFTEN ALLOWS FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BE PULLED WELL N
THEN E ONTO THE PLAINS TO INTERACT WITH THE FREQUENT UPPER
DISTURBANCES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN NEARLY DAILY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THIS BEGINS WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EITHER A MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5)
ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE MORE FREQUENT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO COME INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WE PROBABLY
WON'T BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE HUMIDITY (STILL HAVE A LOT OF
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAPPENING EACH DAY), BUT THE UPPER PATTERN
DESCRIBED ABOVE SHOULD SHUNT ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING FURTHER S, ALLOWING FOR MAINLY 70S AND 80S FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND DURING ANY DAYTIME DRY BREAKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT, A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA FROM THE N,
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND SHIFT TO
MAINLY NERLY WIND. TWO AVIATION ITEMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITY/CONFIDENCE: 1) A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
WEAK STORMS (BETTER CHANCES TO THE N AND W) 2) BRIEF STRATUS
AND/OR FOG AROUND DAWN, JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OF THE TWO, THE
STRATUS/FOG SEEMS MOSTLY UNLIKELY GIVEN LIKELY PROPENSITY FOR
SIGNIFICANT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MOISTURE IS HIGH AND WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AM CAVEATS...THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND
MODEST E TO NE WINDS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ007-018-
019.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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