171
FXUS63 KGID 251222 CCA
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
721 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
- COVERAGE OF T-STORMS INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY. AS OF 2AM, WE'VE
BEGUN TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SANDHILLS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA (AND POSSIBLY DOWN INTO NORTHERN KS) THROUGH SUNRISE.
RECENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN PRETTY
"GARDEN VARIETY," BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IF THEY CAN TAP INTO SOME OF THE 2-3000J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE
AREA.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF A "LULL" IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE CAMS ON CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE FOR LATER IN THE DAY, BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO RAMP UP IN THE 6-7PM
TIMEFRAME AND EXIT THE AREA IN THE 1-2AM TIMEFRAME. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK, WIND LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR
MORE BOWING SEGMENTS. THAT SAID, SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. RAIN/T-STORM CHANCES RETURN ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES
NOT LOOK OVERLY CONCERNING. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HINT AT A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AGAIN FOR THE FOLLOWING WORK
WEEK, BUT OF COURSE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES,
INSTABILITY IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORMS FIRING UP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE. THESE
STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
WITH CAMS INDICATING THEY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH ACROSS OUR
WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY, COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AS
THEY REACH THE LOCAL AREA AROUND LATE EVENING, LIKELY ONLY
IMPACTING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE TRICK ON TUESDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS, ALBEIT THE BETTER SHOT SHOULD COME WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL ARE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AS A RESULT, HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN
CONCERT WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE AM HOURS. SREF
PROBS INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WITH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AROUND, LARGELY DISCOUNTED THIS AND CHOSE NOT TO
INTRODUCE FOG INTO THE FORECAST.
BEYOND TUESDAY, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE EC/GFS KEYING IN MAINLY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS, WITH
OFF AN ON AGAIN STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY. WHILE STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES, IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN ADDITION, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY, BEFORE WARMING UP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS MID TO UPPER 90S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT 4-7
DEGREES BELOW THIS POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
EAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW LONG
AND HOW FAR EASTWARD THEY PERSIST.
PATCHY LOW STRATUS ALSO EXISTS IN THE AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG...ESPECIALLY AS T-STORMS APPROACH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. EAR IS
MORE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED THAN GRI, BUT DID MAINTAIN A PROB30
GROUP AT BOTH SITES.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (OUTSIDE OF ANY T-STORMS).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...MANGELS
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