521
FXUS63 KGID 271925
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT (20% OR LESS CHANCE) MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
- HAIL UP TO AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY IMPACT (UP TO 35% CHANCE) PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. SOME AREAS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MAY HAVE
TEMPERATURES AND/OR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO MONTANA. NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME
STORMS MAY IMPACT (20% OR LESS CHANCE) MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES) LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH CAPE, WIND SHEAR, AND LAPSE RATES. PERHAPS THE
DECIDING FACTOR IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER/NEAR THE AREA. HAIL UP TO AROUND THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY (UP TO 35%
CHANCE) LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA. THESE
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY FROM
HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA (25% OR LESS CHANCE) FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS,
IF THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA, MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE EARLIER THE STORMS DEVELOP, THE MORE LIKELY THEY WILL BE SEVERE
DUE TO DECREASING CAPE AND WIND SHEAR DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. AGAIN, THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON SEVERE STORMS (AND
TIMING) MAY BE WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH CLOUDIER
SKIES AND STRONGER WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH
NEAR 104 OR 105 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
PERHAPS EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN ROW OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE
MID 80S TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEGINNING AROUND 08Z AND
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 14Z. KEAR MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT WIND SHEAR
AROUND 12Z BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 5 TO
15 KNOTS THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY 09Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY/AROUND 15Z FRIDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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