676
FXUS63 KGID 280006
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
706 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY BETWEEN 9 PM AND 12-1 AM, PRIMARILY SOME OF OUR
WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES (MOST FAVORING
DAWSON/GOSPER/PHELPS/FURNAS/HARLAN/PHILLIPS/ROOKS) MIGHT SEE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...AS A POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTER/COMPLEX DIVES IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. PRIMARY
HAZARDS HAIL TO AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP
TO ~ 65 MPH.
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES AND/OR
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES (MAINLY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA).
- INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY, BUT NO "OBVIOUS"
TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO MONTANA. NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME
STORMS MAY IMPACT (20% OR LESS CHANCE) MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES) LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH CAPE, WIND SHEAR, AND LAPSE RATES. PERHAPS THE
DECIDING FACTOR IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER/NEAR THE AREA. HAIL UP TO AROUND THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY (UP TO 35%
CHANCE) LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA. THESE
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY FROM
HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA (25% OR LESS CHANCE) FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS,
IF THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA, MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE EARLIER THE STORMS DEVELOP, THE MORE LIKELY THEY WILL BE SEVERE
DUE TO DECREASING CAPE AND WIND SHEAR DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. AGAIN, THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON SEVERE STORMS (AND
TIMING) MAY BE WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH CLOUDIER
SKIES AND STRONGER WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH
NEAR 104 OR 105 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
PERHAPS EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN ROW OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE
MID 80S TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
UNLESS A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING HAPPENS TO BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY, THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ONLY VARYING
DEGREES OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAINLY AT-OR-ABOVE 10K FT.
AS FOR WINDS (AND NOT ACCOUNTING FOR ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW ENHANCEMENT), SPEEDS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL PREVAIL AT-OR-BELOW 10KT AS THEY TRANSITION
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY. THEN FROM LATE-MORNING
ONWARD (AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON), SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME A BIT BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 14-16KT/GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 24KT.
- STILL-UNCERTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT:
EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER NORTHERN NE ALONG WITH LATEST HIGHER-
RES MODELS, THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE THAT
PRIMARILY KEAR (MORE FAVORED THAN KGRI) MIGHT BE CLIPPED BY A
COMPLEX OF STORMS DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL/WESTERN NE. AS A RESULT, HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 GROUP
OF -TSRA FOR KEAR, BUT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY MOVED UP ITS VALID
TIME FROM PREVIOUS TAFS (NOW 02-06Z). GIVEN LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO IMPACT KGRI HAVE REMOVED ANY PROB30 GROUP/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH TERMINALS TECHNICALLY STAND A
SMALL (20% OR LESS) CHANCE FOR SPOTTY/WEAK SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AT LEAST 06-12Z (TOO LOW OF A CHANCE FOR TAF
INCLUSION).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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