282
FXUS63 KGID 280629
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
129 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND POSSIBLY ALSO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME
SPORADIC 45-55+ MPH GUSTS ON THE NORTH (BACKSIDE) OF THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES (DUE TO
A "WAKE LOW")...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES AND/OR
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES (MAINLY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA).
- INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING-THURSDAY, BUT NO "OBVIOUS" TIME
FRAMES OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO MONTANA. NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME
STORMS MAY IMPACT (20% OR LESS CHANCE) MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES) LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH CAPE, WIND SHEAR, AND LAPSE RATES. PERHAPS THE
DECIDING FACTOR IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER/NEAR THE AREA. HAIL UP TO AROUND THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY (UP TO 35%
CHANCE) LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA. THESE
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY FROM
HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA (25% OR LESS CHANCE) FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS,
IF THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA, MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE EARLIER THE STORMS DEVELOP, THE MORE LIKELY THEY WILL BE SEVERE
DUE TO DECREASING CAPE AND WIND SHEAR DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. AGAIN, THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON SEVERE STORMS (AND
TIMING) MAY BE WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH CLOUDIER
SKIES AND STRONGER WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH
NEAR 104 OR 105 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
PERHAPS EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN ROW OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE
MID 80S TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAINLY AT-OR-ABOVE 10K FT. THERE MIGHT BE THE SMALLEST CHANCE OF
A ROGUE SHOWER/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATER FRIDAY EVENING, BUT AT THIS TIME THE LIKELIHOOD
APPEARS TOO LOW TO EVEN JUSTIFY A PROB30 GROUP. AS FOR WINDS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH GUSTS TOPPING OUT
20-25KT. HOWEVER, OF OVERALL-GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MODERATELY-STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STARTING LATER
FRIDAY EVENING.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING, SPEEDS WILL WILL PREVAIL AT-OR-BELOW
10KT AS THEY TRANSITION FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY.
THEN FROM LATE-MORNING ONWARD (AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING), SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME A BIT BREEZY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 14-16KT/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 24KT
(ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN SPEEDS
ESPECIALLY 00-03Z).
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
ALTHOUGH SOME FAIRLY WEAK LLWS EXISTS EARLY THIS MORNING, IT
WILL CERTAINLY BECOME STRONGER FRIDAY EVENING, AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2K FT. AGL RAMP UP TO AROUND
45KT...CREATING 30+KT OF SHEAR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND THIS LEVEL. AS A RESULT, LLWS GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED AT
BOTH KGRI/KEAR STARTING 03Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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