501
FXUS63 KGID 281741
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S TODAY.
- ISOLATED-SCATTERED NON-SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT-
SATURDAY MORNING.
- HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY-STRONG
WINDS AND RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY SUNRISE. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS AIDED BY THE
LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS. ALOFT A RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S (NORTHEAST) TO MID 90S (SOUTHWEST).
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES, GUSTING 20-30 MPH.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO/WY. THESE STORMS WILL STEADILY
MOVE EAST OVER TIME REACHING FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIME OF
ARRIVAL, STORMS WILL BE ON THE DOWNTREND SO ANY STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR UNLIKELY. DESPITE THE OVERALL DOWNTREND ON STORMS, A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED (NON SEVERE) STORMS
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ENDING BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY.
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND PLACING THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A HOT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS SOAR
INTO THE 90S, TOPPING OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES WHICH
IS SHY OF HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT WILL RESULT IN UNPLEASANT
CONDITIONS NONETHELESS. A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO MONTANA. NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME
STORMS MAY IMPACT (20% OR LESS CHANCE) MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES) LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH CAPE, WIND SHEAR, AND LAPSE RATES. PERHAPS THE
DECIDING FACTOR IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER/NEAR THE AREA. HAIL UP TO AROUND THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY (UP TO 35%
CHANCE) LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA. THESE
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY FROM
HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA (25% OR LESS CHANCE) FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS,
IF THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA, MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE EARLIER THE STORMS DEVELOP, THE MORE LIKELY THEY WILL BE SEVERE
DUE TO DECREASING CAPE AND WIND SHEAR DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. AGAIN, THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON SEVERE STORMS (AND
TIMING) MAY BE WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH CLOUDIER
SKIES AND STRONGER WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH
NEAR 104 OR 105 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
PERHAPS EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN ROW OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE
MID 80S TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY/AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH BY/AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY 15Z. WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 03Z AND 14Z. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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