502
FXUS63 KGID 282355
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- THERE IS A 15% CHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WILL BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
- THE HEAT INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
90S TO NEAR 104 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
- A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO TO NEBRASKA. WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
TO MID 90S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED; HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE (15%
CHANCE). THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 70S WITH WINDS NOT WEAKENING MUCH, IF ANY, FROM THE DAYTIME.
SKIES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL
ALSO AID IN PREVENTING FURTHER COOLING OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE EXTENDING TO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
WEST (ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO) TO EXPAND
FURTHER EAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT
UP INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 105 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREES.
ISOLATED AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PERHAPS IN FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE TEMPERATURES AND/OR HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR OR AT 105 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY MOVE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON SUNDAY MAY BE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPING SHOWERS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVER THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY MAY APPROACH OR
REACH 105 DEGREES FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, ESPECIALLY ROOKS, OSBORNE, AND MITCHELL COUNTIES. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE AND SUFFICIENT LIFT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID/UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY (MID 80S TO 100 DEGREES)
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO VARIOUS CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A FEW SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT COULD NEAR THE THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 4-8Z. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE STAGES OF DISSIPATION WITH
DECREASING STORM COVERAGE. GIVEN SOMEWHAT LOWER THAT USUAL
CONFIDENCE, THE MENTION FOR THUNDER WAS LEFT AS A VICINITY
MENTION FOR KEAR AND ONLY AS A PROB30 GROUP FOR KGRI FOR NOW.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT, HOWEVER, WILL BE FROM THE
PRESENCE OF LLWS FROM THE ACTIVATION OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
JET. UP TO 40-50KTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3Z AND 15Z FOR BOTH SITES.
THOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE EVENING
TO EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS, CLOUD BASES WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 5,000FT WITH AN 80% CHANCE OF VFR CEILINGS
MAINTAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN BETWEEN 10-15KTS THROUGH 21Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...STUMP
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