126
FXUS63 KGID 312325
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
625 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES BEGINNING AROUND 1 AM UNTIL AROUND
MID- MORNING TUESDAY.
- SOME OF THESE STORMS TONIGHT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60
MPH.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON /EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 100 TO 103/104
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS (MAINLY SOUTHERN) OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND TEXAS NORTHWARD TO NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND ARE
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER/NEAR THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND TO THE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA BEGINNING AROUND 1 AM AND CONTINUING
UNTIL AROUND OR SLIGHTLY PAST SUNRISE. CAPE, WIND SHEAR, AND LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEAR/ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
MOSTLY THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
ALONG THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER/NEAR THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN HIGH CAPE AND FAIRLY HIGH WIND SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO GO AWAY 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTERWARDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY NORTH OF THE TRI-
CITIES) WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BECOME
MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. ON
AND OFF AGAIN SLIGHT RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (15% TO 25%) WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A FEW CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN FROM THE WEST AGAIN
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 10,000FT
UNLESS A STORM PASSES NEAR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES (30-40%
CHANCE). MOST STORMS ARE PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE
KEAR/KGRI TERMINALS, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A ROGUE STORM
TO NEAR THE VICINITY WOULD BE BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z.
WINDS ACROSS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER END OF THE
SPECTRUM (MAINLY LESS THAN 10KTS) WITH DIRECTIONS STARTING OUT
OF THE EAST AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
IF A STORM DOES MANAGE TO REACH KEAR/KGRI TONIGHT (MAINLY
BETWEEN 8-12Z), A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 20-30KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...STUMP
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