184
FXUS63 KGID 071915
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
215 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED T-STORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE IN THE 7PM TO MIDNIGHT
TIMEFRAME (MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CAMBRIDGE TO
ALBION). WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- ONE LAST ROUND OF HEAT IS EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED NEAR/SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM STOCKTON, KS TO HEBRON, NE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS PERSIST ON TUESDAY. MOST OF
THESE WILL BE NON-SEVERE, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SPOTTY GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY REACHING
FURNAS/GOSPER/DAWSON COUNTIES BY AROUND 7PM. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD BE WIND GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND HIGH CLOUD BASES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR, ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR/OVER
105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS THAT ARE MOST
FAVORED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO "BUST" IF THE
FRONTAL TIMING WERE TO SPEED UP. FUN FACT: THIS IS THE LATEST
HEAT ADVISORY EVER ISSUED BY NWS HASTINGS. PRIOR TO THIS YEAR,
WE HAD NEVER ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY IN SEPTEMBER, BUT THERE HAVE
BEEN 4 DAYS WITH HEAT ADVISORIES THIS SEPTEMBER!
MOST OF THE STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE,
ALTHOUGH CAMS HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD FAVOR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE WARMER AND
THEREFORE MORE UNSTABLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TREND DRIER WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S). THAT SAID, SOME LOW POPS (10-20%) PERSIST OVER
PORTIONS OF KANSAS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO
RETURN FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A COOLDOWN AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN/T-STORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
STRONG, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15-18KTS, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30KTS, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LLWS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
AREA. THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS (AROUND 1500FT) WILL START OUT SSE
AND VEER TO SW BY 10Z TOMORROW MORNING.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST LIES IN THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS COLD FRONT "STALLING" JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS AT END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS STALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY,
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY NEAR THE TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 3Z
(ESPECIALLY FOR KEAR). CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS BAND
TO SET UP THROUGH CENTRAL NE, WITH KEAR/KGRI ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
BAND IS UNCERTAIN, WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHERN SHIFT IN LOCATION
POTENTIALLY CAUSING MORE IMPACTS FOR THE TERMINALS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ086-087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ006-007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...SCOTT
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