025
FXUS63 KGID 081838
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
138 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM TONIGHT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, AS HIGHS CLIMB IN
THE UPPER 90S-LOW 100S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105-108.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
- A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE, WITH HAZARDS INCLUDING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH, QUARTER
SIZE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN STRONGEST STORMS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- AFTER TONIGHT, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
SEVERE WEATHER COMES FRIDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH (MORE TO COME LATER). THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING A BREAK FROM THE HEAT FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S. HOWEVER, THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, NAMELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, AS HIGHS
CLIMB IN THE UPPER 90S-LOW 100S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH
105-108. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM
TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, AS AMPLE HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY REBUILD (AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE).
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT, AS A COOLER DRIER AIR MASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RETURN
THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE EFI-SOT (WHICH IS A MEASURE OF HOW EXTREME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY) INDICATES THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY (WITH 60-70% OF MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES), AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS
THIS PAST STRETCH, AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S, COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY RESIDING IN THE MID
80S. HOWEVER, THIS HEAT WON'T STICK AROUND LONG, AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALONG WITH THE COOL-
DOWN, THIS DISTURBANCE BRINGS WITH IT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS FRIDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH FROM NEAR LXN TO ODX. THIS IS LARGELY
LIFTING NORTHEAST, BUT COULD BRIEFLY CLIP THE EAR/GRI VICINITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN THREAT FOR T-STORMS
WILL BE AFTER 03Z.
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR THE AREA, SOME MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXACT TIMING/COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT MODELS SUGGEST A 50-70% CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AT LEAST BRIEFLY IN THE 10-15Z TIMEFRAME.
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS THEN GO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT, BUT WILL RETURN TO
THE NORTH FOR THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ086-087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...SCOTT
AVIATION...MANGELS
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