957
FXUS63 KGID 091132
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
632 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT
(30-70%; GREATEST POTENTIAL CONCENTRATED EAST). A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK (HIGHS: 70S AND 80S).
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EACH DAY FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, A COOLER (80S
HIGHS) AND DRIER (UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS) AIRMASS HAS
SETTLED INTO THE REGION. ALOFT, A NORTHERN PLAINS CENTERED TROUGH
HAS BROUGHT MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (STABILIZING CONDITIONS NOT
TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT). AS RESULT OF THE RECENT
PATTERN TRANSITION, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
(OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING SCATTERED STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS A FEW
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR A FEW NEBRASKA AREAS EAST OF HWY-
281). THE FRONT, NOW POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KANSAS,
COULD POSSIBLY KICK UP A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAT NEIGHBOR FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ROOKS, OSBORNE OR MITCHELL COUNTIES (10-20%
CHANCE). THESE STORMS, HOWEVER, WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO VENTURE TOO
MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO ANY OTHER PORTIONS OF THE AREA (WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT).
THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE THAT WILL BE FELT TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD KEEP IN THE 80S AS THE
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. LOWS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN REACH THE LOW 50S IN A
FEW LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES (30-60% CHANCE). AN AROUND
1020MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY, FLIPPING THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY BRING BACK UPPER 80S TO MID
90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THIS SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY STICK AROUND (AVERAGE
EARLY TO MID SEPTEMBER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S). THE
REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE DAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ADDITIONALLY HELP TO RELOAD LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, HELPING TO ALSO INCREASE THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT (PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.25-1.5 IN).
SIGNS FOR YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY APPEAR
TO BE IN THE WORKINGS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS ROUNDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL NOT ONLY BRING THE AREAS ITS NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCE THIS WEEK, BUT ALSO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/NAM MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO POP UP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES ITS WAY THROUGH. THERE IS, HOWEVER, SOME RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING THE INDIVIDUAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
(AFFECTING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING) AND THE PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPING
STORMS (UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY UNRAVEL). EARLY
GUIDANCE PROJECTS A HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT (2,000-3,000J/KG
MUCAPE) PAIRED WITH 25-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 7-8C/KM OF LOW-
TO-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES; AM ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD BE WELL
SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
INTRODUCED ALL OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR NOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH (MORE TO COME LATER). THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING A BREAK FROM THE HEAT FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S. HOWEVER, THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, NAMELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, AS HIGHS
CLIMB IN THE UPPER 90S-LOW 100S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH
105-108. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM
TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, AS AMPLE HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY REBUILD (AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE).
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT, AS A COOLER DRIER AIR MASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RETURN
THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE EFI-SOT (WHICH IS A MEASURE OF HOW EXTREME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY) INDICATES THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY (WITH 60-70% OF MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES), AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS
THIS PAST STRETCH, AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S, COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY RESIDING IN THE MID
80S. HOWEVER, THIS HEAT WON'T STICK AROUND LONG, AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALONG WITH THE COOL-
DOWN, THIS DISTURBANCE BRINGS WITH IT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS FRIDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A FEW AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND LOW CEILINGS (AS LOW AS
500FT) WILL BE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 15Z. THESE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND LONG, ESPECIALLY
FOR KEAR. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION
FREE WITH SKIES CLEARING BETWEEN MAINLY 15Z AND 0Z. WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY, GUSTING UP TO NEAR
15KTS, SHOULD LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE
FILTER IN. SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...SCOTT
AVIATION...STUMP
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