759
FXUS63 KGID 250550
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS DROPPED AS MUCH AS
2-4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY...LATE AFTERNOON BRINGING A BIT OF A LULL.
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL BRING CHANCES CONTINUING ON THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS,
BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR ANY STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVIER RAIN RATES THAT CROSS
OVER AREAS WHICH HAD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EARLIER TODAY.
- PRECIP IS MORE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF BETTER CHANCES FRI EVENING-SAT AM. AGAIN THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
FINALLY HAVE A BREAK LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
CURRENTLY...
AS EXPECTED, BEEN A WET, DREARY, COOL DAY ACROSS THE THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD CONTINUING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA,
SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS ALREADY SEEING A BREAK IN THE RAIN.
THANKS TO IT BEING AN EFFICIENT RAIN, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES NOSING INTO THE REGION, AREA
MESONETS HAVE SHOWN A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM
ADAMS COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH HARLAN COUNTY SINCE MIDNIGHT.
HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FORMAL HYDRO HEADLINES UP TO THIS POINT,
THE OVERALL RATES/HOURS THIS RAIN IS SPREAD OUT OVER HAS BEEN
MANAGEABLE...BUT THIS IS AN AREA ESPECIALLY THAT WILL HAVE A
CLOSE EYE KEPT ON IT WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED.
LOOKING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DATA SHOWING CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SET UP BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TX GULF COAST REGION WITH ITS
NORTHWARD EXTENDING RIDGING, AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS DRIVEN BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE PAC NW. A MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED LOWER LEVEL WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION IS DRIVING THIS ONGOING
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAIN WORKING THROUGH WSWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE AREA REMAINING
SOCKED IN WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS, WITH OBS RECORDING SUB-1000 FT
CEILINGS. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ENERN CONUS AND A TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS...KEEPING WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF THINGS AROUND
10-15 MPH. NOT SURPRISINGLY TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO DO
MUCH TODAY...SITTING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
CONTINUES TO LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BROADER PICTURE, SHOWING CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DRIVEN BY THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL FROM ACTIVITY WHICH MOVED IN
LAST NIGHT...THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS ALREADY
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEING THE MAIN TIMEFRAME
WITH THIS NEXT BATCH...WHICH THEY ALSO SHOW BEING MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE (VS THE WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF PRECIP WE HAD
EARLIER IN THE DAY). OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW...BUT INSTABILITY ISN'T ZERO, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FEW
STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS. OF MORE CONCERN WOULD BE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS WITH MORE NOTABLE RATES WERE TO SPEND MUCH TIME
OVER AREAS WHICH ALREADY HAD 2- 4 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EARLIER
TODAY, COULD HAVE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ARISE.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A LESS ACTIVE PERIOD. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION FOR ANY PARTICULAR PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE COVERAGE APPEARS THAT IT'LL BE MORE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED IN NATURE. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE ONCE AGAIN
LATER IN THE DAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. AGAIN THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW (SPC DAY 2 REMAINS 'GENERAL THUNDER' FOR THE
AREA)...BUT IF CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/BETTER
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
THIS WEEKEND ON INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...SOME MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A TOUCH SLOWER, POTENTIALLY LINGERING
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THOSE CHANCES PUSHES EAST,
MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DRYING THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF MONDAY ENDS UP BEING DRY AS
WELL...BUT DO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
SHOWING THE NEXT NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
TUESDAY-ISH TIME FRAME...BUT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH HOW THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SLOWER/STRONGER SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE PRECIPTIATION...THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE/QUICKER.
PANNING OUT LIKE THE ECMWF WOULD DRAG PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FURTHER OUT INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK...GFS DRIES THINGS OUT
QUICKER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL LOOKING AT 70S-LOW
80S FOR THE WEEKEND-MON...POTENTIALLY MORE 60S TUESDAY ON,
DEPENDING ON HOW PRECIP WORKS OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH LIFR POTENTIAL THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY MORNING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE. LIGHT POCKETS OF LINGERING SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY AFTER 16Z, SO HAVE PLACED ANY LINGERING
PRECIP IN PROB30 GROUPS. A MARGINAL RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. FINALLY,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE IN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER 03Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...BEGAN
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