972
FXUS63 KGID 251752
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING ROUND OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE
THIS MORNING...LEAVING ONLY SPOTTY, OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. THOSE
LOOKING FOR SOME SUNSHINE, HOWEVER, WILL BE DISAPPOINTED.
- ANOTHER BATCH OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS & STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO MOST OF MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
- HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S ALONG AND S OF THE STATE LINE
TODAY, AND EXPECT FURTHER WARMING INTO THE 70S-80S AREA WIDE
THIS WEEKEND. MAINLY 60S-70S EXPECTED TUE-THU NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM FROM WHAT WAS
DISCUSSED BELOW. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM
AROUND THE TRI-CITIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST EVEN FAR NE ZONES SHOULD
BE DONE WITH ORGANIZED RAIN BY ~10AM. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS SHOULD BE VOID OF
ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT RAIN. HOWEVER, I'M HESITANT TO CALL IT "A
FOR SURE DRY PERIOD" AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTIFUL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL MAKE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. SO
GENERALLY SPEAKING, DAMP AND DREARY TODAY, BUT NOT NEARLY AS WET
OR STEADY OF RAIN AS YESTERDAY. PROSPECTS FOR ANY SORT OF
SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE TODAY APPEARS TO BE LOW, THOUGH PORTIONS OF
OUR KS FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME BREAKS LATE IN THE DAY AND A
NUDGE IN TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY.
MODELS BRING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT,
MAINLY AFTER 03Z/10PM. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT HIGHER
(MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG), BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CAPE
TO BE THE TALL/"SKINNY" VARIETY WITH VERY MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS SUGGESTS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (ANOTHER 1-2"?), WHICH IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 3-4" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (ROUGHLY
NORTON, KS TO MINDEN, NE), THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED
MINOR/NUISANCE HYDRO ISSUES.
MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ORGANIZED RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH SIMILAR TO TODAY, CLOUDY,
DAMP, AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AM HOURS. MAY FINALLY SEE SOME MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER, THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR AREAS E OF HWY 281. THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE (LIMITED FORCING), SO ONLY 20-30% CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE NICE AT THIS TIME, WITH A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS, LIGHT EASTERLY WIND, AND COMFORTABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
CONTINUES TO LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BROADER PICTURE, SHOWING CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DRIVEN BY THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL FROM ACTIVITY WHICH MOVED IN
LAST NIGHT...THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS ALREADY
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEING THE MAIN TIMEFRAME
WITH THIS NEXT BATCH...WHICH THEY ALSO SHOW BEING MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE (VS THE WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF PRECIP WE HAD
EARLIER IN THE DAY). OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW...BUT INSTABILITY ISN'T ZERO, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FEW
STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS. OF MORE CONCERN WOULD BE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS WITH MORE NOTABLE RATES WERE TO SPEND MUCH TIME
OVER AREAS WHICH ALREADY HAD 2- 4 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EARLIER
TODAY, COULD HAVE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ARISE.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A LESS ACTIVE PERIOD. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION FOR ANY PARTICULAR PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE COVERAGE APPEARS THAT IT'LL BE MORE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED IN NATURE. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE ONCE AGAIN
LATER IN THE DAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. AGAIN THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW (SPC DAY 2 REMAINS 'GENERAL THUNDER' FOR THE
AREA)...BUT IF CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/BETTER
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS.
THIS WEEKEND ON INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...SOME MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A TOUCH SLOWER, POTENTIALLY LINGERING
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THOSE CHANCES PUSHES EAST,
MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DRYING THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF MONDAY ENDS UP BEING DRY AS
WELL...BUT DO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
SHOWING THE NEXT NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
TUESDAY-ISH TIME FRAME...BUT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH HOW THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SLOWER/STRONGER SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE PRECIPTIATION...THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE/QUICKER.
PANNING OUT LIKE THE ECMWF WOULD DRAG PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FURTHER OUT INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK...GFS DRIES THINGS OUT
QUICKER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL LOOKING AT 70S-LOW
80S FOR THE WEEKEND-MON...POTENTIALLY MORE 60S TUESDAY ON,
DEPENDING ON HOW PRECIP WORKS OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LINGERING LOW CEILINGS, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
MORE SO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. KEPT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON
PESSIMISTIC, UNDER 1K FT..BUT IT'S POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON
LIFT MORE INTO THE 1000-1500FT RANGE, CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT
HIGH. WHAT LIFTING BASES THERE ARE THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH CEILINGS BACK UNDER 1K FT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE A VCSH MENTION STARTING AT 21Z, BUT
BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO/AFTER 7PM...LASTING THROUGH
EARLY SAT AM. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IF PRECIP MOVES
OUT QUICKER, MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP. CURRENT MODELS
SUGGESTING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD MAY BE PRECIP-
FREE. NOT LOOKING AT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, STARTING OUT SOUTHEASTERLY, GRADUALLY TURNING MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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