735
FXUS63 KGID 271722
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT -
THOUGH COVERAGE/IMPACTS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND.
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LIKE LAST WEEK...APPEARS WE'RE IN FOR ANOTHER
EXTENDED STRETCH OF WET/COOL CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH THU.
- HEAVY RAIN AND HYDRO ISSUES ARE BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL FETCH/CONNECTION TO
DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ALREADY WET SOILS FROM WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LAST WEEK. LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS
GIVE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A ROUGHLY 25-50% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST SOME FLOODING TUE INTO WED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
FOG IS DEVELOPING GENERALLY AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND DON'T
SEE ANY IMMEDIATE NEED TO ADJUST/EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY,
THOUGH THIS COULD STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST
GOES NIGHTTIME RGB, AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS, AND WEBCAMS REVEAL
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF DENSE FOG FROM AROUND NORTON TO
LEXINGTON/KEARNEY NORTH AND EAST UP TOWARDS ORD AND ALBION. 1/4
MILE OBS ARE COMMON IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER E, VERY LOW STRATUS
APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE, WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW
VISIBILITIES...AND THIS IS FOCUSED MAINLY E OF HWY 281. THIS
LEAVES GI AND HASTINGS SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE FOG AND
THE STRATUS, AT LEAST FOR NOW. STILL SOME TIME FOR BOTH FEATURES
TO EXPAND, AND GIVEN MOST RECENT (LAST 10-30 MIN) SATELLITE
TRENDS, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG EXPANDS A BIT FURTHER
E AND REQUIRES 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES BE ADDED TO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...ESP. IN OUR NE ZONES.
EXPECT POOR VISIBILITIES TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH MID-MORNING
BEFORE FOG/STRATUS GRADUALLY LIFTS AND AT LEAST TRIES TO SCATTER
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE EXCEEDED MY EXPECTATIONS
YESTERDAY, DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
REMAINING LOCKED IN, SO CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
TODAY IS NOT VERY HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE
LIMITED SHOULD CLIMB INTO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE STUBBORN, HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S.
SEVERAL PIECES OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, AND CONCEPTUALLY THIS IS HARD TO ARGUE
AGAINST GIVEN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RH IN THE LOW
LEVELS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND
MORE VARIABLE WITH WHERE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES DEVELOP...THUS
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TONIGHT IS LOWER.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN THAT ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ALL THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR
TO THE ONE WE HAD THIS PAST WEEK IN WHICH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN ACTIVE SW UPPER FLOW THAT WILL HAVE
A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT TO WORK
WITH ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. IN FACT, LATEST EC
CONTINUES TO POINT AT OUR MIDWEEK RAIN BEING DIRECTLY TIED TO
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE POLO IN THE E PACIFIC.
00Z EPS FORECAST PWAT ANOMALIES ARE AS EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE AS
CONCERNING...TOPPING OUT AT AROUND +3/+4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS!
AS SUCH, ANY RAIN THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE INCREDIBLY EFFICIENT,
ESP. BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. THE EPS GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY N OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW GIVES NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA 50-70% PROBABILITIES FOR TOTAL RAIN NEXT
WEEK OF AT LEAST 2"...AND ~20% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 4". AS
ALWAYS, LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLE THAT THE RELATIVELY
COARSE 50-MEMBER ENSEMBLE JUST CAN'T PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.
WILL END WITH THIS: BETWEEN LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME TWO WEEK RAIN TOTALS EXCEED 8-10", WHICH
IS NEAR/OVER DOUBLE WHAT OUR AVERAGE IS FOR OUR WETTEST MONTHS
OF MAY OR JUNE. THIS WOULD BE ABOUT AS CLOSE TO A TWO-WEEK,
DROUGHT- BUSTING TYPE EVENT THAT WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE FOR EARLY
FALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
TODAY AND SUNDAY...
A FEW LINGERING AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS EAST OF HWY-281 THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS ALL THAT WOULD BE LEFT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT RECENTLY PASSED OVERTOP OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA REMAIN AROUND 20-
30% AS MOST OF THE COVERAGE AREA SHOULD ULTIMATELY REMAIN DRY
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
DEVELOPING THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEPOSITED UP TO 2-6" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY AREA OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. NOW THE
PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARDS A BRIEF DRY, YET CLOUDY PERIOD AS
HEIGHTS/PRESSURE RISES ALOFT (INDICATING SUBSIDENCE AND NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH [STABILIZING
FEATURES]). THE NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL NOT COME
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH WEAK (<10MPH) EASTERLY WINDS. THE CONDITIONS FOR FOG LOOK
PROBABLE (70-90% CONFIDENCE) TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
TRACK TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS (ALSO RANGING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S). THE LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE FOG FORMATION,
PREVENTING FOG FROM MIXING OUT. THE ONLY FEATURE THAT COULD LIMIT
THE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WOULD BE FROM THE OVERCAST SKY
CONDITIONS. A POTENTIAL THICK LAYER OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD ACT AS
A BLANKET, POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINY, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
(HREF MEMBERS & RRFS) SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA (80% OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS), ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
HIGHER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE, IT SEEMS AS IF THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED. BEYOND THE MORNING FOG POTENTIAL
SUNDAY, THE CLOUDS LOOMING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP
THE TREND OF 70S TO LOW 80S HIGHS ROLLING ON INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
(THROUGH TUESDAY) WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM EXCEEDING THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY RANGE THE 50S TO MID 60S WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TO SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS AFTER TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO PEAK BETWEEN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S (RECENTLY TRENDING
DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES). REMNANTS OF ONE OF THE PACIFIC HURRICANES
(POLO) WILL LOOK TO BE STIRRED NORTHEAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION AND WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES COULD BRING THE AREA'S NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SWEEP BY ALONG WITH
THIS WAVE, REINFORCING THE NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID
70S). MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF STEADY UNIFORM RAIN, THOUGH A FEW MIXED
IN NON-SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST GUESS
PRECIPITATION FORECAST RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY CURRENTLY IS CURRENTLY 1-
1.5".
THE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CONTINUE ONE INTO MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO
GET FED NORTHEASTWARD AND UP TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONCENTRATION (PWAT VALUES 1.5-1.75"),
STEADY, PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
THE MEAN NBM QPF BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGES BETWEEN 1.5-
2.5" OF PRECIPITATION WITH A 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD OF 2-3"
(VERY HIGH SPREAD ... HIGH UNCERTAINTY). THE 25 PERCENTILE FOR THE
AREA LIES BETWEEN 0.75-1" (75% OF MEMBERS EXCEED THESE VALUES) WITH
THE 75TH PERCENTILE LYING BETWEEN 3.5-4" (75% OF THE MEMBERS FALL
BELOW THESE VALUES [25% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE]). THIS HIGH SPREAD OF
UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT HARD TO NARROW DOWN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. GIVEN
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS), THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NATURALLY LIE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
CONCENTRATED ACROSS LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM CENTER (MAINLY
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS). MUCH MORE DETAILS WILL BE UNRAVELED THOUGH
THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM'S TRACK AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST WINDOWS
NARROW SOME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A DECK OF LOW-LEVEL IFR TO LOW-END MVFR STRATUS TODAY APPEARS
TO BE IN THE STAGES OF DECAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SOON FOR KEAR AND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FOR KGRI. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL CLEARING OR BRIEF WIDOW OF VFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE 6-15Z PERIOD.
BEYOND THE LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT, FOG FORMATION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6-16Z. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
VISIBILITIES TO DROP AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT (AS LOW AS 1/4
MILE), VISIBILITIES REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS 1-3 MILES COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT (GUSTS <15KTS).
WIND DIRECTIONS OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND LATER SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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