312
FXUS63 KGID 032337
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR GRAFTON CONTINUES TO BE IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DROP. THIS FLOOD
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS (HIGH
CONFIDENCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COMING IN TOO COOL TODAY AND
THIS PROBLEM COULD CONTINUE AS THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS MAY
TAKE TIME TO CATCH ONTO THIS COOLER FALL AIRMASS. OUR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY CLIMBING ABOVE OUR FORECAST HIGHS IN A
FEW LOCATIONS BY NOON TODAY. THEREFORE, ALREADY MADE TWO UPDATES
REGARDING TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HIGHS. OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY ALSO BE 2-5F TOO
COOL.
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY PLEASANT FALL
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. WE
EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S INTO THE 70S MOST DAYS THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD. KANSAS ZONES MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD 7-8F MODEL SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
INDICATING HIGHER MODEL UNCERTAINTY, BUT MOST MODELS ARE CALLING
FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S. ON THE HIGHER END WE COULD REACH THE LOWER
80S, ON THE LOWER END WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S MOST NIGHTS, BUT SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PARTICULARLY COOL WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE 40S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR ZERO THIS WEEK. IT WILL BE A
GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NO MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH GOOD VSBYS EXPECTED.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...ROSSI
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