990
FXUS63 KGID 041134
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR GRAFTON REMAINS IN MINOR
FLOOD STAGE BUT IS SLOWLY DROPPING. THE FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM TODAY.
- THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO MID 80S WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID 40S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR GRAFTON REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE BUT IS SLOWLY DROPPING. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM TODAY. CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT
OF THE NORTH AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT BY SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S TO LOW/MID 50S. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT (AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH) AND WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY (MAYBE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS). WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM UP ON TUESDAY
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BEFORE COOLING A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY
(HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S). LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FORECAST STILL
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COMING IN TOO COOL TODAY AND
THIS PROBLEM COULD CONTINUE AS THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS MAY
TAKE TIME TO CATCH ONTO THIS COOLER FALL AIRMASS. OUR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY CLIMBING ABOVE OUR FORECAST HIGHS IN A
FEW LOCATIONS BY NOON TODAY. THEREFORE, ALREADY MADE TWO UPDATES
REGARDING TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HIGHS. OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY ALSO BE 2-5F TOO
COOL.
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY PLEASANT FALL
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. WE
EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S INTO THE 70S MOST DAYS THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD. KANSAS ZONES MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD 7-8F MODEL SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
INDICATING HIGHER MODEL UNCERTAINTY, BUT MOST MODELS ARE CALLING
FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S. ON THE HIGHER END WE COULD REACH THE LOWER
80S, ON THE LOWER END WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S MOST NIGHTS, BUT SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PARTICULARLY COOL WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE 40S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR ZERO THIS WEEK. IT WILL BE A
GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5 KNOTS AND WILL CHANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 21Z. WINDS WILL THEN BE SOUTHERLY BY 09Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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