429
FXUS63 KGID 062317
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
- A COUPLE THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT FAVORED (10%) FOR
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
50S. WEEKEND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
LIKELY PEAKING WITH GUSTS OF 30 - 40 MPH ON SATURDAY.
- NEXT REAL RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE AROUND NEXT TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OUR NEXT LARGE-SCALE WAVE ALOFT. TRENDS IN
MORE PRECISE ARRIVAL TIME WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTERMITTENT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY STORY FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AS BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
ALL ACROSS THE BOARD FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 - 10 MPH UNTIL THIS EVENING, WHEN A
DIFFUSE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SWING WINDS TO NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOWS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW-TO-UPPER 50S.
OF LESSER IMPORTANCE, THE 12Z RRFS SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 4 AM - 9 AM. THE 12Z HRRR SEEMS TO BE
PAINTING A MUCH MORE REALISTIC PICTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SKIN- DEEP SATURATED LAYER BENEATH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS EXTENDING
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ALOFT. ANY WIND MIXING ACTION AT ALL
WOULD STRONGLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION, AND THUS HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MUCH OF THE SAME DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. 12Z HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL FLANK
OF JET FORCING ALOFT WILL IMPINGE ON OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ORD TO YORK) AROUND THE DAWN TO MID
MORNING HOURS ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE
SUBTLE LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
IN THESE TWO TIMEFRAMES, BUT DRY LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE A
SUBSTANTIAL IMPEDIMENT TO THIS RAIN POTENTIAL, AND HAVE KEPT
THIS RAIN OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
ASIDE FROM THIS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WILL
CONTINUE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STAYING IN THE 50S ASIDE FROM OUR
FAR NORTHERN TERRITORY NEAR ORD, WHICH CAN DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 - 10 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
WHILE FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO TURN THINGS UP A COUPLE NOTCHES.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY OF 10 - 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 - 30 MPH, ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS PROGGED BY
THE 06Z EPS AND GEFS.
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S, ARE EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RECENT NBM GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO
RESOLVE THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES, AND THUS MORE WIDESPREAD 80S
MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND SHOULD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
EXCEED NBM GUIDANCE. DESPITE SOME SUBTLE VORTICITY ADVECTION
LATE ON SATURDAY, DRY PROFILES ARE FAVORED TO STAVE OFF RAIN
ENTIRELY THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WINDIEST DAY UPCOMING AS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SURFACE LOW FROM FRIDAY DEEPENS TO SUB-1000 MB.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 - 25 MPH AND GUSTS SPIKING INTO THE 30 -
40 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW. WINDS WILL
CALM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS FALLING BACK TO 20 - 30 MPH
AS THE DAKOTAS LOW DIES OFF.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE RANGE WE'RE AT,
BUT THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL
CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE AROUND NEXT TUESDAY. LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE, AND THUS SHOULD THIS TREND
CONTINUE, WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LIKELIER ARRIVAL TIME FOR THE NEXT
ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED...ANYTHING PASSING THROUGH WOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE UPPER LEVELS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, TURNING MORE NORTHERLY CLOSER
TO SUNRISE, THEN MORE NORTHEASTERLY MID-MORNING ON THROUGH THE
END OF THIS PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BEGAN
AVIATION...ADP
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