837
FXUS63 KGID 071722
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO 80S AND LOWS IN THE
50S TO 60S.
- THOUGH UNLIKELY, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY ORD TO YORK.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.
- ACCUMULATING RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK IS THE MOSTLY DRY AND
ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THANKS
TO AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TODAY, WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY BY SUNDOWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
50S TONIGHT, INCREASING INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO
80S THE REST OF THE WEEK, PEAKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE DISRUPTION TO THE OUTRIGHT DRY FORECAST MAY COME THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING, AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHOULD ANY SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM ORD TO YORK.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, PEAKING TO 30-40+ MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTERMITTENT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY STORY FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AS BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
ALL ACROSS THE BOARD FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 - 10 MPH UNTIL THIS EVENING, WHEN A
DIFFUSE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SWING WINDS TO NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOWS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW-TO-UPPER 50S.
OF LESSER IMPORTANCE, THE 12Z RRFS SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 4 AM - 9 AM. THE 12Z HRRR SEEMS TO BE
PAINTING A MUCH MORE REALISTIC PICTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SKIN- DEEP SATURATED LAYER BENEATH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS EXTENDING
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ALOFT. ANY WIND MIXING ACTION AT ALL
WOULD STRONGLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION, AND THUS HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MUCH OF THE SAME DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. 12Z HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL FLANK
OF JET FORCING ALOFT WILL IMPINGE ON OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ORD TO YORK) AROUND THE DAWN TO MID
MORNING HOURS ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE
SUBTLE LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
IN THESE TWO TIMEFRAMES, BUT DRY LOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE A
SUBSTANTIAL IMPEDIMENT TO THIS RAIN POTENTIAL, AND HAVE KEPT
THIS RAIN OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
ASIDE FROM THIS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WILL
CONTINUE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STAYING IN THE 50S ASIDE FROM OUR
FAR NORTHERN TERRITORY NEAR ORD, WHICH CAN DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 - 10 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
WHILE FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO TURN THINGS UP A COUPLE NOTCHES.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY OF 10 - 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 - 30 MPH, ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS PROGGED BY
THE 06Z EPS AND GEFS.
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S, ARE EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RECENT NBM GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO
RESOLVE THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES, AND THUS MORE WIDESPREAD 80S
MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND SHOULD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
EXCEED NBM GUIDANCE. DESPITE SOME SUBTLE VORTICITY ADVECTION
LATE ON SATURDAY, DRY PROFILES ARE FAVORED TO STAVE OFF RAIN
ENTIRELY THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WINDIEST DAY UPCOMING AS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SURFACE LOW FROM FRIDAY DEEPENS TO SUB-1000 MB.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 - 25 MPH AND GUSTS SPIKING INTO THE 30 -
40 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW. WINDS WILL
CALM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS FALLING BACK TO 20 - 30 MPH
AS THE DAKOTAS LOW DIES OFF.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE RANGE WE'RE AT,
BUT THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL
CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE AROUND NEXT TUESDAY. LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE, AND THUS SHOULD THIS TREND
CONTINUE, WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LIKELIER ARRIVAL TIME FOR THE NEXT
ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, HOLDING
STEADY BETWEEN 4 - 9 KTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY RIGHT AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
NO CONCERNS FOR PRECIP OR LLWS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCOTT
DISCUSSION...BEGAN
AVIATION...BEGAN
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