445
FXUS63 KGID 091852
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
152 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S UP TO 90 ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THINGS WILL COOL BACK TO THE 60S AND 70S MID
NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY IS
FAVORED TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 - 40+ MPH
POSSIBLE.
- OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. STRONG TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 - 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20 - 30 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CONTINUED SUNSHINE WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES HOT, WITH TODAY'S
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH,
WE'LL BE APPROACHING AND POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING RECORDS FOR THIS
DATE. TYPICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. GIVEN HOW HIGH WE'LL GET THIS AFTERNOON,
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A VERY SIMILAR STORY CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RELATIVE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
RISK GIVEN CONTINUED HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
OUR RECENT RAINFALL THANKFULLY HOLDS BACK MAJOR FIRE CONCERNS.
WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 ARE EXPECTED, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS STICKING TO THE MID 60S. IT IS AT LEAST WORTH IT
TO SAY THAT THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT
INDEX CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-UPPER
80S ARE FAVORED FOR MONDAY AS A DIFFUSE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 - 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ROUGHLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN A DIFFUSE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AND SWING OUR WINDS GENERALLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY OF 30 - 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES ARE
NOISY, BUT SUGGEST ROUGHLY 40% - 60% CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED
GUSTS OF 40 - 45 MPH ON SATURDAY. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY (15 - 25 MPH) AND AGAIN ON MONDAY (10 - 20
MPH). OWING TO THESE WINDS AND DRY PROFILES, NO CONCERNS FOR FOG
THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY AND LATER
HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MID NEXT WEEK,
AND DOWN TO JUST THE 60S LATE WEEK. THINGS ARE HOLDING PRETTY
STEADY REGARDING NEXT WEEK'S RAIN. 06Z ENSEMBLE DATA IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT A FEW ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR AREA IS SIDESWIPED BY AN EXITING
JET STREAK OVER THE MIDWEST. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED JETS, HOWEVER, LOOK TO ARRIVE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RAIN LOOKS TO CARRY OVER
INTO WEDNESDAY AS CONTINUED JET STREAM AND VORTICITY ADVECTION
FORCING GETS SANDWICHED OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. WHILE PLACEMENT WILL NEED
TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS, THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO BE OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA.
WE MAY ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS UPCOMING RAIN EVENT FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND FOR PRIMARILY AREAS SOUTH OF I-80.
12Z GEFS DATA SUGGESTS SOME UNIMPRESSIVE OVERLAP IN
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND QPF ON TUESDAY, BUT RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE SPC CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE US
OUTLOOKED FOR EITHER DAY, BUT NOTES THAT OUTLOOKED AREAS SOUTH
OF US MAY SHIFT OR EXPAND IN THE COMING DAYS.
FINALLY, 13Z NBM DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT
SATURDAY MORNING (10/17) MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S (ROUGHLY 30% -
40% CHANCES). AS OF NOW, LIKELIEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE OUR
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. LET'S CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS FOR A POTENTIAL FIRST FROST, BUT FOR NOW WE ARE STILL TOO
FAR OUT TO MAKE ANY OFFICIAL CALLS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT RELATIVELY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 - 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD CAN REACH 25+ KTS. TONIGHT,
LLWS WILL DEVELOP AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM SPOOLS
UP. WINDS IN THE 800 - 2,000 FT LAYER CAN REACH 50 KTS FOR A
SURFACE-TO-2,000-FT SHEAR IN THE 35 - 45 KT RANGE. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED BE A FEW KNOTS STRONGER AND LAST A BIT LONGER FOR KGRI
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE OVERNIGHT, AS A
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE INVERSION MAY INHIBIT SOME OF THE LLJ FROM
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS AROUND FOR NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HERE ARE THE DETAILS FOR THE NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES IN
BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THE NEXT 2 DAYS:
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9TH: FORECAST HIGH / RECORD HIGH
GRAND ISLAND, NE: 90F 91F (2020)
HASTINGS, NE: 90F 92F (1928)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10TH: FORECAST HIGH / RECORD HIGH
GRAND ISLAND, NE: 90F 90F (1928/31)
HASTINGS, NE: 90F 90F (1920)
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR GRAND ISLAND DATE BACK TO 1895 AND
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR HASTINGS DATE BACK TO 1907.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BEGAN
AVIATION...BEGAN
CLIMATE...ROSSI
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