976
FXUS63 KGID 101143
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
643 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND (POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING TODAY), WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 40+ MPH
POSSIBLE TODAY (20-40% CHANCE).
- A BREAK FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID WEEK,
WITH HIGHS LIKELY RETURNING TO THE 60S AND 70S.
- ISOLATED RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM, WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 60S. THIS IS WELL ABOVE-NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR (THE NORMAL LOWS ARE AROUND 45 DEGREES), AND
MAY EVEN BREAK THE RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE
IN HASTINGS (RECORD OF 59 DEGREES). WHILE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, IT WILL BE HARDER TO BREAK THE RECORD WARMEST LOW FOR
GRAND ISLAND, WHICH HOLDS AT 68 DEGREES.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, COMPARED TO LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE UPPER 60S. IN FACT, RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND
TODAY (RECORD SITTING AT 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH LOCATIONS). ALONG
WITH THESE WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25
MPH. WIND WILL LIKELY GUST TO 30-35 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 40+ MPH POSSIBLE (ROUGHLY 20-40% CHANCE). WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER, THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
(20-40% CHANCE), PRIMARILY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GREATER UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST (UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM). MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS FRONT, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AREA. THOUGH
RAIN/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BETTER RAIN CHANCES
COME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 - 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20 - 30 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CONTINUED SUNSHINE WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES HOT, WITH TODAY'S
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH,
WE'LL BE APPROACHING AND POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING RECORDS FOR THIS
DATE. TYPICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. GIVEN HOW HIGH WE'LL GET THIS AFTERNOON,
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A VERY SIMILAR STORY CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RELATIVE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
RISK GIVEN CONTINUED HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
OUR RECENT RAINFALL THANKFULLY HOLDS BACK MAJOR FIRE CONCERNS.
WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 ARE EXPECTED, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS STICKING TO THE MID 60S. IT IS AT LEAST WORTH IT
TO SAY THAT THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT
INDEX CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-UPPER
80S ARE FAVORED FOR MONDAY AS A DIFFUSE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 - 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ROUGHLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN A DIFFUSE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AND SWING OUR WINDS GENERALLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY OF 30 - 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES ARE
NOISY, BUT SUGGEST ROUGHLY 40% - 60% CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED
GUSTS OF 40 - 45 MPH ON SATURDAY. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY (15 - 25 MPH) AND AGAIN ON MONDAY (10 - 20
MPH). OWING TO THESE WINDS AND DRY PROFILES, NO CONCERNS FOR FOG
THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY AND LATER
HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MID NEXT WEEK,
AND DOWN TO JUST THE 60S LATE WEEK. THINGS ARE HOLDING PRETTY
STEADY REGARDING NEXT WEEK'S RAIN. 06Z ENSEMBLE DATA IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT A FEW ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR AREA IS SIDESWIPED BY AN EXITING
JET STREAK OVER THE MIDWEST. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED JETS, HOWEVER, LOOK TO ARRIVE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RAIN LOOKS TO CARRY OVER
INTO WEDNESDAY AS CONTINUED JET STREAM AND VORTICITY ADVECTION
FORCING GETS SANDWICHED OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. WHILE PLACEMENT WILL NEED
TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS, THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO BE OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA.
WE MAY ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS UPCOMING RAIN EVENT FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND FOR PRIMARILY AREAS SOUTH OF I-80.
12Z GEFS DATA SUGGESTS SOME UNIMPRESSIVE OVERLAP IN
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND QPF ON TUESDAY, BUT RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE SPC CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE US
OUTLOOKED FOR EITHER DAY, BUT NOTES THAT OUTLOOKED AREAS SOUTH
OF US MAY SHIFT OR EXPAND IN THE COMING DAYS.
FINALLY, 13Z NBM DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT
SATURDAY MORNING (10/17) MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S (ROUGHLY 30% -
40% CHANCES). AS OF NOW, LIKELIEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE OUR
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. LET'S CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS FOR A POTENTIAL FIRST FROST, BUT FOR NOW WE ARE STILL TOO
FAR OUT TO MAKE ANY OFFICIAL CALLS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD VSBYS. EXPECT THE MODEST LLWS EVIDENT ON THE VWP
TO DIMINISH DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS PICK
UP...LIKELY GUSTING TO NEAR 35 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING, EXPECT LLWS TO
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY AFT 11/02Z WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING IN
ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCOTT
DISCUSSION...BEGAN
AVIATION...ROSSI
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