398
UXUS97 KGJT 071306
SRGGJT
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO
606 AM MST FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 52.9 F/11.6 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... GOOD
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 499 FT/MIN (2.5 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 12320 FT MSL (6714 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 60.0 F/16.0 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1100 MST
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 10449 FT MSL (4842 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY 11/08..... GOOD
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:49:00 / 17:06:35 MST
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 10 HR 17 MIN 35 SEC (617 MIN 35 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 11:57:48 MST... 34.36 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 11/07/2025 AT 0500 MST
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 9417 FT MSL (3811 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 17477 FT MSL (11871 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 13968 FT MSL (8362 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +6.6
K INDEX......................... -2.9
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.5 -80.5 295 58 30 1.7 0.9 M M M M M
45000 -60.1 -76.2 295 72 37 -1.0 -0.6 M M M M M
40000 -62.2 -80.0 300 83 43 -1.5 -0.8 M M M M M
38000 -59.8 -75.6 300 83 43 7.4 4.1 M M M M M
36000 -54.8 -66.6 305 80 41 7.4 4.1 M M M M M
34000 -50.2 -58.4 305 78 40 7.8 4.3 M M M M M
32000 -45.5 -49.9 305 74 38 7.8 4.3 M M M M M
30000 -40.8 -41.4 305 71 36 8.2 4.5 34.4 93.9 14.2 M M
29000 -38.3 -36.9 305 69 35 8.2 4.5 33.7 92.7 13.9 M M
28000 -35.9 -32.6 305 66 34 8.2 4.5 33.1 91.7 13.6 M M
27000 -33.4 -28.1 305 65 33 8.4 4.6 32.6 90.7 13.4 M M
26000 -30.9 -23.6 300 64 33 8.4 4.6 32.0 89.7 13.0 M M
25000 -28.4 -19.1 300 63 32 8.4 4.6 31.6 88.8 12.8 M M
24000 -25.9 -14.6 300 62 32 8.0 4.4 31.1 88.0 12.6 M M
23000 -23.5 -10.3 300 61 31 7.9 4.4 30.4 86.7 12.1 M M
22000 -21.2 -6.2 305 60 31 8.0 4.4 29.7 85.5 11.7 M M
21000 -18.3 -0.9 305 58 30 7.1 3.9 28.8 83.9 11.1 M M
20000 -16.2 2.8 305 55 29 7.1 3.9 27.8 82.1 10.3 M M
19500 -15.1 4.8 310 54 28 7.1 3.9 27.4 81.3 10.0 M M
19000 -14.1 6.6 310 53 27 7.1 3.9 27.0 80.6 9.7 M M
18500 -13.0 8.6 310 52 27 6.9 3.8 26.5 79.7 9.4 M M
18000 -12.0 10.4 310 50 26 6.9 3.8 26.0 78.8 9.0 M M
17500 -11.0 12.2 310 48 25 6.3 3.4 25.5 77.9 8.6 M M
17000 -10.1 13.8 310 46 23 6.1 3.3 24.9 76.8 8.1 M M
16500 -9.2 15.4 310 44 22 5.8 3.2 24.3 75.7 7.6 M M
16000 -8.4 16.9 310 41 21 5.0 2.8 23.5 74.3 6.9 M M
15500 -7.6 18.3 310 38 20 5.3 2.9 22.7 72.9 6.3 M M
15000 -7.0 19.4 310 35 18 3.0 1.6 21.8 71.2 5.4 M M
14500 -6.5 20.3 310 33 17 3.2 1.8 20.7 69.2 4.5 M M
14000 -6.1 21.0 305 31 16 2.6 1.4 19.6 67.2 3.5 M M
13500 -5.8 21.6 300 29 15 2.5 1.4 18.4 65.1 2.4 M M
13000 -5.4 22.3 300 27 14 3.3 1.8 17.2 63.0 1.3 M M
12500 -4.9 23.2 295 25 13 3.6 2.0 16.2 61.2 0.3 M M
12000 -4.3 24.3 290 23 12 4.7 2.6 15.3 59.5 -0.6 479 2.4
11500 -3.5 25.7 290 21 11 5.2 2.9 14.6 58.2 -1.3 441 2.2
11000 -2.8 27.0 290 19 10 4.4 2.4 13.8 56.9 -2.0 404 2.1
10500 -2.2 28.0 290 16 8 3.9 2.1 12.9 55.3 -2.9 372 1.9
10250 -1.8 28.8 290 15 8 7.9 4.4 12.6 54.6 -3.2 353 1.8
10000 -1.1 30.0 290 14 7 8.6 4.7 12.6 54.6 -3.3 325 1.7
9750 -0.7 30.7 290 13 7 5.7 3.1 12.3 54.1 -3.6 304 1.5
9500 -0.2 31.6 290 12 6 6.7 3.7 12.0 53.6 -3.9 283 1.4
9250 0.2 32.4 290 10 5 5.5 3.0 11.8 53.2 -4.2 262 1.3
9000 0.6 33.1 295 9 5 6.6 3.6 11.4 52.5 -4.5 244 1.2
8750 1.2 34.2 295 8 4 8.2 4.5 11.3 52.3 -4.7 219 1.1
8500 1.7 35.1 295 7 4 8.0 4.4 11.1 52.0 -4.9 194 1.0
8250 2.3 36.1 300 6 3 7.1 3.9 11.0 51.8 -5.0 170 0.9
8000 2.8 37.0 300 6 3 6.7 3.7 10.7 51.3 -5.3 148 0.8
7750 3.3 37.9 305 5 3 7.5 4.1 10.5 51.0 -5.5 124 0.6
7500 3.9 39.0 310 4 2 7.1 3.9 10.4 50.6 -5.7 100 0.5
7250 4.4 39.9 315 3 2 6.5 3.6 10.1 50.2 -5.9 78 0.4
7000 4.9 40.8 320 2 1 6.0 3.3 9.9 49.8 -6.2 56 0.3
6750 5.3 41.5 330 2 1 6.5 3.6 9.6 49.3 -6.5 35 0.2
6500 5.8 42.4 345 1 1 3.6 2.0 9.3 48.7 -6.8 14 0.1
6250 5.8 42.4 035 1 0 -1.6 -0.9 8.6 47.5 -7.5 5 0.0
6000 5.9 42.6 085 1 1 6.7 3.7 7.9 46.3 -8.2 M M
5750 6.5 43.7 095 2 1 -0.5 -0.3 7.8 46.0 -8.3 M M
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
11/07/2025 AT 0800 MST | 11/07/2025 AT 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +8.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +8.0
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -4.0 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +5.7
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.0 -81.4 290 62 32 2.9 1.6 | -63.0 -81.4 290 62 32 2.9 1.6
45000 -58.9 -74.0 290 76 39 -1.3 -0.7 | -59.0 -74.2 285 76 39 -1.0 -0.6
40000 -60.9 -77.6 290 86 44 -1.1 -0.6 | -60.4 -76.7 285 80 41 -0.7 -0.4
38000 -58.1 -72.6 290 87 45 7.0 3.8 | -57.6 -71.7 290 82 42 6.6 3.6
36000 -53.9 -65.0 290 87 45 7.0 3.8 | -53.7 -64.7 290 85 44 6.6 3.6
34000 -49.4 -56.9 290 85 44 8.2 4.5 | -49.5 -57.1 290 85 44 7.7 4.2
32000 -44.5 -48.1 290 80 41 8.2 4.5 | -44.9 -48.8 290 80 41 7.7 4.2
30000 -39.7 -39.5 290 75 38 7.8 4.3 | -40.1 -40.2 290 76 39 8.4 4.6
29000 -37.4 -35.3 290 71 37 7.8 4.3 | -37.6 -35.7 290 73 38 8.4 4.6
28000 -35.0 -31.0 290 68 35 7.8 4.3 | -35.1 -31.2 290 71 37 8.4 4.6
27000 -32.1 -25.8 290 63 33 7.7 4.2 | -32.6 -26.7 290 69 35 8.0 4.4
26000 -29.8 -21.6 290 60 31 7.7 4.2 | -29.6 -21.3 285 65 34 8.0 4.4
25000 -27.5 -17.5 290 56 29 7.7 4.2 | -27.2 -17.0 285 62 32 8.0 4.4
24000 -25.2 -13.4 290 52 27 7.3 4.0 | -24.9 -12.8 285 59 30 7.1 3.9
23000 -23.1 -9.6 290 50 26 7.4 4.0 | -22.8 -9.0 285 56 29 7.2 3.9
22000 -20.9 -5.6 290 47 24 7.4 4.0 | -20.7 -5.3 285 52 27 7.2 3.9
21000 -18.7 -1.7 290 45 23 6.9 3.8 | -18.6 -1.5 285 49 25 6.4 3.5
20000 -16.7 1.9 290 43 22 6.9 3.8 | -16.7 1.9 285 46 24 6.4 3.5
19500 -15.7 3.7 290 42 22 6.9 3.8 | -15.8 3.6 285 45 23 6.4 3.5
19000 -14.6 5.7 290 41 21 6.9 3.8 | -14.9 5.2 285 43 22 6.4 3.5
18500 -13.7 7.3 290 40 21 6.1 3.3 | -14.0 6.8 280 42 22 5.8 3.2
18000 -12.8 9.0 290 39 20 6.1 3.4 | -13.1 8.4 280 41 21 5.9 3.2
17500 -11.8 10.8 290 37 19 5.9 3.2 | -12.2 10.0 285 39 20 5.9 3.2
17000 -11.0 12.2 290 35 18 5.7 3.1 | -11.4 11.5 285 38 20 5.9 3.3
16500 -10.1 13.8 285 33 17 5.7 3.1 | -10.5 13.1 285 37 19 5.9 3.2
16000 -9.3 15.3 285 32 16 5.4 3.0 | -9.6 14.7 285 35 18 5.5 3.0
15500 -8.4 16.9 285 30 15 5.4 3.0 | -8.8 16.2 285 33 17 5.5 3.0
15000 -7.6 18.3 285 28 15 5.5 3.0 | -8.0 17.6 285 32 16 5.5 3.0
14500 -6.7 19.9 285 27 14 5.6 3.1 | -7.1 19.2 285 30 16 5.5 3.0
14000 -5.8 21.6 285 25 13 5.3 2.9 | -6.2 20.8 285 29 15 5.6 3.1
13500 -5.0 23.0 285 23 12 5.2 2.8 | -5.4 22.3 285 27 14 5.6 3.1
13000 -4.3 24.3 285 21 11 5.3 2.9 | -4.5 23.9 280 25 13 5.5 3.0
12500 -3.5 25.7 285 20 10 5.3 2.9 | -3.7 25.3 280 23 12 5.5 3.0
12000 -2.7 27.1 285 18 9 5.3 2.9 | -2.8 27.0 280 22 11 5.4 3.0
11500 -1.9 28.6 285 17 9 5.3 2.9 | -2.0 28.4 275 20 10 5.4 3.0
11000 -1.1 30.0 280 15 8 5.0 2.8 | -1.2 29.8 275 18 9 5.6 3.1
10500 -0.5 31.1 275 13 7 5.2 2.8 | -0.4 31.3 270 16 8 6.1 3.3
10250 -0.1 31.8 275 12 6 3.2 1.8 | 0.0 32.0 270 15 8 4.3 2.3
10000 0.1 32.2 275 12 6 4.1 2.2 | 0.3 32.5 270 15 8 4.7 2.6
9750 0.5 32.9 270 11 6 6.6 3.6 | 0.8 33.4 265 14 7 6.7 3.7
9500 0.9 33.6 265 10 5 6.1 3.3 | 1.2 34.2 265 13 7 6.3 3.5
9250 1.4 34.5 260 9 4 5.9 3.3 | 1.7 35.1 260 12 6 5.9 3.2
9000 2.2 36.0 245 7 4 5.4 3.0 | 2.1 35.8 260 11 6 5.5 3.0
8750 2.6 36.7 240 6 3 5.9 3.2 | 3.0 37.4 255 9 5 7.2 3.9
8500 3.0 37.4 230 5 3 5.1 2.8 | 3.5 38.3 250 8 4 5.7 3.1
8250 3.3 37.9 215 5 3 4.1 2.2 | 3.9 39.0 245 8 4 4.2 2.3
8000 3.6 38.5 205 5 2 5.4 3.0 | 4.2 39.6 245 7 4 6.3 3.4
7750 4.1 39.4 190 4 2 6.1 3.3 | 4.8 40.6 235 6 3 7.1 3.9
7500 4.5 40.1 180 4 2 4.6 2.5 | 5.2 41.4 230 5 2 5.1 2.8
7250 4.7 40.5 170 5 3 3.5 1.9 | 5.5 41.9 225 4 2 2.9 1.6
7000 5.0 41.0 160 6 3 5.3 2.9 | 5.8 42.4 215 4 2 9.0 4.9
6750 5.5 41.9 155 5 2 4.2 2.3 | 6.7 44.1 210 3 1 11.4 6.3
6500 5.6 42.1 145 4 2 1.2 0.7 | 7.4 45.3 210 2 1 7.9 4.3
6250 5.7 42.3 135 4 2 2.0 1.1 | 8.0 46.4 205 2 1 7.6 4.2
6000 5.8 42.4 130 4 2 0.1 0.0 | 8.6 47.5 200 2 1 10.8 5.9
5750 5.5 41.9 115 3 2 -9.7 -5.3 | 9.7 49.5 205 2 1 19.8 10.9
5500 4.1 39.4 090 3 1 -29.2 -16.0 | 11.0 51.8 200 1 1 7.5 4.1
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
11/07/2025 AT 1400 MST | 11/07/2025 AT 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.9 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.6
CINH... -0.3 K INDEX... +12.9 | CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... +13.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.6 -82.5 290 66 34 2.1 1.2 | -64.0 -83.2 290 66 34 1.2 0.7
45000 -60.5 -76.9 290 85 44 0.0 0.0 | -62.1 -79.8 290 87 45 1.3 0.7
40000 -60.5 -76.9 295 72 37 0.2 0.1 | -60.1 -76.2 305 83 43 1.4 0.8
38000 -57.6 -71.7 300 78 40 6.5 3.6 | -57.4 -71.3 305 85 44 5.6 3.1
36000 -53.7 -64.7 300 87 45 6.5 3.6 | -54.0 -65.2 300 88 46 5.6 3.1
34000 -49.4 -56.9 300 91 47 8.3 4.5 | -50.0 -58.0 300 88 45 8.6 4.7
32000 -44.4 -47.9 300 88 45 8.2 4.5 | -44.9 -48.8 300 83 43 8.5 4.7
30000 -39.6 -39.3 295 84 43 7.6 4.2 | -39.8 -39.6 300 78 40 8.2 4.5
29000 -37.3 -35.1 295 82 42 7.7 4.2 | -37.4 -35.3 305 76 39 8.2 4.5
28000 -35.0 -31.0 295 79 41 7.7 4.2 | -34.9 -30.8 305 75 38 8.2 4.5
27000 -32.7 -26.9 295 76 39 8.0 4.4 | -32.5 -26.5 305 73 38 8.0 4.4
26000 -30.3 -22.5 295 73 38 8.0 4.4 | -30.1 -22.2 305 70 36 8.0 4.4
25000 -27.3 -17.1 295 69 35 8.0 4.4 | -27.7 -17.9 305 67 35 8.0 4.4
24000 -24.9 -12.8 295 66 34 7.5 4.1 | -24.7 -12.5 305 63 33 7.7 4.2
23000 -22.7 -8.9 290 62 32 7.6 4.1 | -22.4 -8.3 305 61 31 7.7 4.2
22000 -20.4 -4.7 290 59 30 7.6 4.2 | -20.1 -4.2 300 59 30 7.7 4.2
21000 -18.4 -1.1 290 56 29 6.0 3.3 | -18.0 -0.4 300 56 29 6.1 3.3
20000 -16.6 2.1 290 52 27 6.1 3.4 | -16.2 2.8 300 54 28 6.2 3.4
19500 -15.7 3.7 285 50 26 6.2 3.4 | -15.3 4.5 300 53 27 6.2 3.4
19000 -14.8 5.4 285 48 25 6.4 3.5 | -14.4 6.1 300 52 27 6.4 3.5
18500 -14.0 6.8 285 46 23 4.2 2.3 | -13.6 7.5 300 50 26 4.6 2.5
18000 -13.4 7.9 285 43 22 4.5 2.5 | -12.9 8.8 300 48 25 4.8 2.6
17500 -12.8 9.0 285 41 21 4.9 2.7 | -12.3 9.9 300 46 23 4.5 2.5
17000 -12.0 10.4 285 40 20 5.1 2.8 | -11.7 10.9 300 43 22 4.2 2.3
16500 -11.3 11.7 285 38 20 5.3 2.9 | -11.1 12.0 300 40 21 4.3 2.3
16000 -10.4 13.3 285 36 19 6.2 3.4 | -10.4 13.3 300 37 19 4.8 2.6
15500 -9.5 14.9 285 35 18 6.2 3.4 | -9.7 14.5 300 35 18 4.7 2.6
15000 -8.7 16.3 285 33 17 5.5 3.0 | -8.9 16.0 300 33 17 6.2 3.4
14500 -7.8 18.0 285 31 16 5.5 3.0 | -8.0 17.6 300 31 16 6.2 3.4
14000 -7.0 19.4 285 29 15 6.0 3.3 | -7.1 19.2 305 29 15 6.2 3.4
13500 -6.1 21.0 285 27 14 6.1 3.4 | -6.2 20.8 300 27 14 6.3 3.4
13000 -5.2 22.6 285 25 13 6.3 3.4 | -5.2 22.6 300 25 13 6.5 3.5
12500 -4.2 24.4 285 23 12 6.4 3.5 | -4.3 24.3 300 23 12 6.6 3.6
12000 -3.2 26.2 280 21 11 6.5 3.5 | -3.3 26.1 295 21 11 7.1 3.9
11500 -2.2 28.0 280 20 10 6.5 3.6 | -2.2 28.0 290 19 10 7.5 4.1
11000 -1.2 29.8 275 18 9 6.4 3.5 | -1.0 30.2 285 16 8 7.5 4.1
10500 -0.2 31.6 275 17 9 6.0 3.3 | 0.1 32.2 280 15 8 7.2 3.9
10250 0.2 32.4 270 17 9 7.6 4.2 | 0.6 33.1 280 14 7 8.8 4.8
10000 0.9 33.6 270 15 8 8.1 4.4 | 1.4 34.5 275 14 7 8.9 4.9
9750 1.4 34.5 270 15 8 6.8 3.7 | 1.9 35.4 275 13 7 7.4 4.0
9500 2.0 35.6 270 14 7 7.2 3.9 | 2.5 36.5 270 13 7 7.7 4.2
9250 2.5 36.5 265 13 7 6.9 3.8 | 3.1 37.6 270 13 7 7.8 4.3
9000 3.0 37.4 265 14 7 7.2 4.0 | 4.2 39.6 270 13 7 6.9 3.8
8750 4.2 39.6 265 12 6 8.1 4.5 | 4.8 40.6 270 12 6 6.9 3.8
8500 4.7 40.5 265 11 6 6.4 3.5 | 5.3 41.5 270 12 6 6.5 3.6
8250 5.1 41.2 270 10 5 4.7 2.6 | 5.8 42.4 270 12 6 6.1 3.3
8000 5.6 42.1 270 9 5 7.8 4.3 | 6.2 43.2 270 12 6 6.8 3.7
7750 6.2 43.2 275 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 6.8 44.2 270 11 5 7.4 4.1
7500 6.9 44.4 275 7 4 7.2 3.9 | 7.3 45.1 275 9 5 6.4 3.5
7250 7.3 45.1 280 7 4 5.0 2.7 | 7.7 45.9 280 9 4 5.4 2.9
7000 7.8 46.0 285 7 3 10.8 5.9 | 8.2 46.8 285 8 4 7.4 4.1
6750 8.8 47.8 280 6 3 13.0 7.1 | 8.8 47.8 285 6 3 8.9 4.9
6500 9.6 49.3 285 6 3 9.1 5.0 | 9.5 49.1 290 6 3 8.3 4.6
6250 10.3 50.5 290 6 3 8.5 4.7 | 10.1 50.2 300 6 3 9.0 4.9
6000 10.9 51.6 295 6 3 10.4 5.7 | 10.7 51.3 310 6 3 6.7 3.7
5750 11.9 53.4 285 5 3 17.3 9.5 | 10.9 51.6 300 4 2 -3.2 -1.8
5500 13.5 56.3 300 5 3 22.5 12.4 | 10.1 50.2 320 3 2 -17.0 -9.3
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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